Donald Trump’s endorsement is facing a key test in Louisiana’s Senate primary on Saturday, where incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy is struggling to hold onto his seat after falling out of favour with the former president. Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol riot, is now trailing in polls behind two Trump-backed challengers: US Representative Julia Letlow and state treasurer John Fleming.
Cassidy, a gastroenterologist who co-founded a clinic for uninsured patients, has served in the Senate since 2014. His relationship with Trump soured after he voted to convict the president in his second impeachment trial. Despite later casting the deciding vote to confirm vaccine sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr as health secretary—a move widely seen as an attempt to mend ties—Trump endorsed Letlow in January, prompting her to enter the race.
An Emerson College poll released last month showed Cassidy in third place among likely Republican voters, with Fleming and Letlow tied for the lead. Political analysts say the primary is largely a referendum on Trump’s influence within the party. “This is a primary that is mostly about Trump,” said Robert Hogan, a political science professor at Louisiana State University, adding that Trump’s opposition likely spells the end of Cassidy’s Senate career.
Louisiana’s Republican Party censured Cassidy in 2021, and recent changes to the state’s primary system—pushed by Trump ally Governor Jeff Landry—now require candidates to be nominated only by party members and unaffiliated voters. Critics say the changes are designed to purge Republicans who cross Trump. Cassidy’s defeat would add him to a growing list of Republicans whose careers have ended at Trump’s hands, including five Indiana state senators who lost primaries earlier this month.
