As the 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams, the potential for upsets grows. Analysing data from 1994 onwards reveals patterns in underdog victories, with ranking disparities used to calculate an 'upset score'. The 1998 tournament saw hosts France beat top-ranked Brazil 3-0 in the final, while Nigeria's 3-2 win over Spain was the biggest upset.
In 2002, South Korea reached the semi-finals as underdogs, and Senegal shocked defending champions France in the opening match. The 2006 World Cup recorded the most upsets (21), including Ukraine's victory over Switzerland and South Africa's win over France, though the hosts were eliminated in the group stage.
Notable upsets in 2010 included Slovakia defeating Italy, and North Korea losing all matches. The 2014 tournament featured Costa Rica topping a group with three former champions, and Spain's early exit. Bulgaria's 1994 quarter-final win over Germany remains iconic.
