Sir Keir Starmer's government faces the risk of internal conflict if Angela Rayner is forced to resign as deputy Labour leader over her tax affairs, party insiders have warned. Sources fear that such a move could trigger a deputy leadership contest at a critical time for the Prime Minister, potentially becoming a 'de facto referendum on Starmer's leadership'.
Rayner, who also serves as Housing Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister, is under investigation by the Prime Minister's ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, after admitting to underpaying stamp duty on an £800,000 property in East Sussex. Sir Laurie's findings are expected as early as Friday; if he concludes that Rayner breached the Ministerial Code, she is likely to be forced to resign from her Cabinet roles.
However, Starmer cannot compel her to step down as deputy party leader, a position elected by Labour members. Party rules allow her to remain in post even if she loses her government job, though she would not be permitted to attend Cabinet. Insiders have raised concerns that if Rayner chooses to step back entirely due to the personal toll of the row, it would trigger a leadership race that could prove damaging for Starmer.
'Everyone wants there to not be a deputy leadership election,' a Labour insider said. 'The left has the person in the role that it wants. The right doesn't want there to be a de facto referendum on Keir's leadership.' A frontbench MP described a deputy leadership race as 'incredibly problematic' ahead of Labour's annual conference and a crucial Budget in November.
The situation is further complicated by Rayner's directly elected mandate as deputy leader. A backbencher noted that the 'widespread vibe is you can't have a deputy leader on the back benches'. Cabinet Office fixer Pat McFadden is being touted as a potential replacement. Downing Street has sought to limit the fallout, with Starmer defending Rayner after vandals targeted her flat. Rayner's sources maintain she acted on legal advice at the time of purchase.
