SNP insiders have acknowledged that the ongoing controversy surrounding former First Minister Alex Salmond is likely to cost the party seats in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections. With polling day on 6 May just eight weeks away, the high-profile evidence sessions involving First Minister Nicola Sturgeon are expected to have a greater impact on public opinion than earlier, more technical committee hearings.
A Survation poll for the Sunday Mail recorded a 50-50 split on independence, excluding don't knows, marking the first time in 22 consecutive polls that the yes side has not held a lead. Another survey by Ipsos Mori for STV found the SNP three points down compared with November, though still commanding 52% support in the constituency vote. The Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour each gained one point, reaching 23% and 15% respectively.
The Ipsos Mori study also asked voters about the Salmond inquiry's effect on their view of the SNP: 36% said it made them less favourable, while 58% said it had not changed their opinion. Some observers suggest that the vaccine rollout, perceived as a benefit of remaining in the union, may have had a greater impact on independence support than the Salmond saga.
Internal YouGov polling of SNP voters showed strong support for Sturgeon, with 49% believing she has generally told the truth, compared to only 13% who thought she had not. For Salmond, only 14% believed he had been truthful, while 42% disagreed. The SNP hopes to win a majority to pursue a second independence referendum, but the recent dip in support for both the party and independence may complicate that goal.
