A new wave of polling this week highlights the challenges facing Republicans and Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections. An Emerson College survey conducted over the weekend shows Democrats with a 10-point advantage over Republican candidates on a generic ballot, the largest gap recorded in that poll.
The same survey reveals that Donald Trump is now underwater with voters on three major policy areas: the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. A year ago, his ratings on these issues were mixed or barely positive. Additionally, 53% of Americans view the war in Iran as a failure of US foreign policy, while only 35% believe the US has achieved some or all of its goals.
Trump's approval rating has particularly declined among independents and Hispanic voters. Seven in ten Hispanic voters now disapprove of his performance, compared to a split result in April 2025. 'Democrats’ strength is driven by an increase in support among Hispanic voters, women, and independents,' said Spencer Kimbrall, executive director of the poll.
Other polling from a Republican super PAC examined nine battleground House districts and found some incumbent Republicans trailing or within a few points of Democratic challengers. An Economist/YouGov survey showed Trump underwater with every age group, with the number of Americans who 'strongly' approve of his performance dipping below one in five.
Republicans have vowed to spend heavily to protect their slim majorities in the House and Senate. However, Democrats are encouraged by GOP retirements and a favourable Senate map, including Senator Thom Tillis's decision not to seek re-election and Mary Peltola's Senate bid in Alaska. Trump has warned that Democrats will attempt to impeach him if they regain control of Congress.
