Former world heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua is set to face YouTube sensation turned professional boxer Jake Paul in a blockbuster bout that has captivated the sporting world. The controversial contest will take place at the Kaseya Centre in Miami this Saturday, 20 December, with live coverage beginning from 3.30am GMT on Netflix.
Heavyweight Mismatch or Career-Defining Upset?
The fight sees the 36-year-old Briton, a two-time world champion, return to the ring after a 14-month hiatus following his loss to Daniel Dubois. His opponent, 28-year-old American Jake Paul, steps up dramatically in weight and class, having seen a planned bout with WBA lightweight champion Gervonta Davis cancelled due to legal issues.
Bookmakers overwhelmingly favour Joshua, with best prices of 1/8 for an AJ victory. Paul is a significant 17/2 underdog, while a draw is priced at a distant 33/1. Despite the perceived mismatch, the event has generated immense interest, fuelled by a massive Netflix promotion and rumours of a total prize pot reaching $200 million.
What's at Stake for Both Fighters?
For Anthony Joshua, this fight carries immense pressure. A loss to a novice opponent could spell the end of his career at the elite level and likely scupper a potential future super-fight against Tyson Fury. His professional record stands at 28-4, with an impressive 89.29% knockout ratio earned against legends like Wladimir Klitschko.
Jake Paul, with a record of 12-1, has little to lose but everything to gain. A shock victory over a former heavyweight champion would be the ultimate validation of his boxing career, which has seen him defeat MMA fighters and retired legends but never an active, world-class heavyweight. Critics have highlighted the physical danger Paul faces, given Joshua's significant size and power advantage.
Expert Betting Tips and Predictions
Given the vast gulf in experience and power, most betting value lies not in a simple Joshua win but in specific fight outcomes. Analysts point to Joshua's brutal second-round knockout of former UFC champion Francis Ngannou as a relevant comparison.
Our first recommended tip is a bet builder combining Anthony Joshua to win, to throw the most punches, and to score at least one knockdown. This is offered at even money (1/1) with Bet365.
While a quick Joshua knockout is anticipated, some pundits suggest Paul's survival instincts and lack of one-punch knockout power at heavyweight may see the fight go longer than many expect. Therefore, a second value bet is for the fight to last Over 3.5 total rounds, available at 5/4 with Parimatch.
The statistical disparity is clear: Joshua holds advantages in height (6'6" to 6'1"), reach (82in to 76in), weight (252.7lbs to 227.2lbs), and professional rounds boxed (167 to 70).
Final Thoughts and Responsible Gambling
This professionally sanctioned fight in Miami is a high-risk, high-reward gamble for both men. For Joshua, it's about reasserting his dominance; for Paul, it's a chance at sporting immortality. All eyes will be on Netflix in the early hours of Saturday morning to see if the script plays out as the odds suggest or if a monumental upset is on the cards.
Remember to gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and seek help if gambling stops being fun. Organisations like GamCare and BeGambleAware offer free, confidential support.
