The Opta supercomputer has officially confirmed that Arsenal remain the firm favourites to secure their first-ever Champions League trophy, following the final draw for the knockout stages of the prestigious competition on Friday morning. Mikel Arteta's squad, who continue to lead the Premier League after overcoming a difficult winter period, are now in contention for an unprecedented quadruple this season, having endured a series of near-misses in recent campaigns.
Arsenal's Favourable Pathway to Budapest
While many Gunners supporters prioritise chasing the league title after consecutive second-place finishes, the opportunity to capture major European silverware for the very first time serves as a powerful motivation as the team enters the critical final phase of the season. Following Friday's draw, Arsenal's chances of reaching the final in Budapest have significantly increased, with the north London club drawn against Bayer Leverkusen in the round of sixteen.
Should they progress, their Blue pathway would then see them face either Bodo/Glimt or Sporting Lisbon in the quarter-finals. Their potential semi-final opponent could be the winner of either Newcastle United versus Barcelona, or Atletico Madrid's clash with Tottenham Hotspur. Conveniently, the last ten winners of the Champions League, including Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid, are all situated on the separate Silver pathway.
Opta Supercomputer Predictions and Premier League Dominance
Despite being grouped with clubs boasting stronger European pedigrees, Bayern Munich emerge as the closest contenders to disrupt Arsenal's path, with Opta grading their chance of lifting the trophy at 14.28%, second only to the Gunners' impressive 27.40% probability. Supporters of English football will be delighted to note that four of the top six clubs with the highest likelihood of claiming glory in Hungary hail from the Premier League.
Liverpool and Manchester City, who face Galatasaray and Real Madrid in the round of sixteen respectively, rank as the third and fourth most probable winners of the Champions League. Liverpool, who would then meet the winner of Paris Saint-Germain versus Chelsea, possess a 12.83% chance, narrowly ahead of Manchester City's 10.79% probability.
Chelsea complete this cohort with a notably smaller 6.86% chance, though the Blues will approach their match-up against the title-holders with confidence, having decisively beaten them in the Club World Cup final last July. Newcastle United just miss out on the top six with a 4.66% chance of winning the trophy, after advancing through a one-sided play-off against Azerbaijani side Qarabag.
Remaining Contenders and Tournament Context
The other Premier League team still competing in Europe's elite club competition, Tottenham Hotspur, hold a slender 1.22% chance. Igor Tudor's injury-plagued squad is likely to concentrate fully on avoiding relegation, one season after winning the Europa League, with Atletico Madrid, who have a 2.00% chance of winning the trophy, favoured to progress to the quarter-finals.
Arsenal dominated the league phase to finish top of the table in the revamped competition format, with Liverpool, Manchester City, and Chelsea also qualifying automatically. Among the favourites for the title, only Paris Saint-Germain were compelled to endure a more challenging route to the round of sixteen, narrowly securing a 5-4 aggregate victory over Ligue 1 rivals Monaco across two legs.
