Digital censorship analysts argue that the current internet blackout in Iran is primarily about survival and control for the country’s rulers, rather than infrastructure damage from strikes. Roughly four hours after the first strikes hit Iran, the country was again plunged into a full internet blackout, severely curtailing information leaving the country and Iranians’ ability to communicate.
A small fraction of the blackout may result from infrastructure damage caused by US or Israeli strikes, possibly to a fibre optic cable, according to Doug Madory of internet analytics firm Kentik. However, the blackout appears mostly intentional, driven by a regime desperate to maintain power. Researchers at Project Ainita and the Outline Foundation stated, “It’s about control and it’s about even possibly slowing down the demise [of the regime].”
Iran first fully shut down its internet on 8 January during escalating anti-government protests over currency prices. That shutdown lasted nearly three weeks, enabling authorities to partly conceal a bloody crackdown estimated to have killed tens of thousands. The latest blackout is almost as total, with mobile phones working but all external connections cut off for those without Starlink or alternatives.
The blackout has increased confusion inside Iran. It may lead more people to stay home, fearing to go out without communication, or cause congregation due to lack of information. Researchers noted, “You’re taking away people’s ability to check on one another,” adding that there is risk for both the government and the people.
Iran has long sought to control information flow, including blasting microwave signals over Tehran rooftops to jam foreign broadcasts, despite health ramifications. The current cutoff recalls the fear after the fall of the shah and a decade of war when information about missing family members was nearly impossible to obtain.
The internet blackout adds to a feeling of entrapment among Iranians, as Turkey closes its land border and airspace is shut. Researchers concluded, “There’s no escape route. And when you shut down the airspace, when you shut down the flights, when you close the borders, what else is there but entrapment?”
