England's draw with Ghana on Tuesday night saw them miss out on the opportunity to qualify for the knockout stages with a game to spare. Victory over the African side in Boston would have seen England confirmed as group winners given Croatia went on to beat Panama in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
What England need to do against Panama
The Three Lions will still be confident of reaching the knockouts, though, with victory over Panama on Saturday enough to see them qualify. The only way for England to beat Panama but not win the group is if Ghana beat Croatia and overtake Thomas Tuchel's men on goal difference. England currently have the better goal difference by 1.
A point would also do the job, although they would not finish first in the group if there is a winner in the match between Ghana and Croatia. Should England lose against Panama, they would still qualify automatically if Ghana beat Croatia or the match ends in a draw. If Croatia win, and England lose, they could still qualify if their goal difference (currently 2) remains greater than Ghana's (currently 1).
England's knockout stage prospects
In reality, England have already qualified for the knockouts as one of the eight best third-place sides at a minimum, given they currently have four points. Wrapping up qualification against Ghana would have given Tuchel the luxury of being able to rest players against Panama. This could have been particularly beneficial given England's World Cup campaign got off to a late start, owing to the fact the Three Lions are in Group L. As such, England's condensed schedule could see them having to play six games in the space of 23 days should they reach the final on July 19.
New tiebreaker rule for group stage
For the first time since 1970, goal difference will no longer be used to separate sides who finish level on points in the group stage at the World Cup. Instead, the head-to-head record between teams will now be used as the first tiebreaker – which is why England will qualify ahead of Croatia if both teams end up on four points.
Potential Round of 32 opponents
As group winners, England would enter the bottom half of the draw where they would play one of the third-placed sides from Groups E, H, I, J or K. This will be against one of Ecuador, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, Senegal, Austria, Algeria, DR Congo or Uzbekistan. The game would take place in Atlanta on July 1 (5pm).
A second place finish in the group would see England play the runner up in Group K, which will almost certainly be either Portugal or Colombia. The game would take place in Toronto on July 2 (12am). Finishing third in the group would mean England play the winner of Group K in Kansas City on July 4 (2.30am) – either Colombia or Portugal.
