UK Petrol Prices Climb Again as Global Tensions Fuel Concerns
Motorists across the United Kingdom are facing a renewed surge in petrol prices, with industry experts issuing stark warnings that costs could escalate dramatically in the coming months. After a period of steady decline since mid-December, average pump prices have now risen for two consecutive weeks, signalling a troubling reversal for drivers already grappling with high living expenses.
Current Price Trends and Underlying Causes
The average cost of petrol currently stands at 131.71 pence per litre, up from 131.46 pence recorded on February 9, 2026. This incremental increase reflects broader global instability, particularly in oil markets. Brent crude oil has surged above $71 per barrel, reaching its highest point since July 2025, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Donald Trump's tariffs are also contributing to market volatility, sending shockwaves through global economies and indirectly inflating fuel costs. Experts caution that any significant disruption to oil supply—such as direct military engagement between the United States and Iran or a blockade of the critical Strait of Hormuz—could trigger even steeper price hikes.
Expert Predictions and Practical Advice
Tony Redondo, founder of Cosmos Currency Exchange based in Newquay, urges British drivers to refuel their vehicles promptly while prices remain relatively manageable. "The recent rise to 131.71p per litre marks a definitive end to the downward trend UK drivers enjoyed earlier this year," Redondo stated. "This uptick is fuelled by global volatility, with Brent crude climbing due to Middle Eastern tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war."
Domestically, although the 5p fuel duty cut remains in effect until September 2026, retailers are swiftly passing wholesale increases onto consumers at the pumps. Barring a major supply disruption, prices are anticipated to stabilise between 133p and 135p per litre in the short term. "While we are not approaching the record high of 191.55p per litre seen in July 2022, the price floor has likely been reached," Redondo added. "It is prudent to fill up now if you locate a station near the current average, as retail prices typically ascend much faster than they decline."
Alarming Forecasts for Summer 2026
Samuel Mather-Holgate, managing director and independent financial adviser at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, delivered a more alarming prognosis. He warned that motorists could confront petrol prices soaring to £2 per litre by the end of summer 2026. "Donald Trump's tariffs are felt globally, even if indirectly, in petrol prices," Mather-Holgate explained. "Increasing uncertainty on the world stage elevates the price of the commodity that remains the engine juice of the world."
"With tariffs, global political uncertainty in the Middle East, and the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, it is anyone's guess how much crude might escalate," he continued. "It is not unthinkable that we could witness up to £2 per litre in the UK by the conclusion of the summer."
Additional Perspectives on Geopolitical Risks
Steven Greenall, an adviser at Rayleigh-based Protect and Lend, echoed concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions potentially driving prices even higher. "With oil up over 8% on exchanges during the past month, it is unsurprising petrol is ticking upward at the pumps," Greenall noted. "Tension rising in the Middle East and potential threats to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz are generating considerable anxiety. If further conflict erupts, anticipate additional upward pressure, although I would expect it to be temporary."
Despite the current increases, petrol costs remain substantially below the historic peak of 191.55p per litre recorded in July 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, the consistent upward trajectory and expert warnings underscore a precarious outlook for UK drivers, emphasising the need for vigilance and proactive measures in the face of volatile global markets.
