Secret Prison Document Exposes Government's IPP Scandal Plan as Doomed Failure
Damning prison projections uncovered by The Independent reveal the government's action plan to tackle the scandal of indefinite jail terms will leave hundreds of prisoners to rot. The shocking Ministry of Justice figures, obtained through a Freedom of Information request, show at least 520 prisoners serving the widely discredited and now abolished Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) jail terms are expected to remain incarcerated in March 2030.
Projections Undermine Government Claims
The revelations completely undermine the government's claim that its 'IPP Action Plan', which promises to help prisoners progress towards safe release, will address this ongoing scandal. Britain's former top judge, Lord John Thomas, has stated the figures prove the government's plan is a "failure" that will not end the "obvious injustice" for those serving the abolished jail term.
These open-ended punishments, which have been linked to almost 100 suicides in prison, have been compared to a "gulag system" for trapping thousands without a release date, including individuals convicted of minor crimes. The architect of this flawed sentence, Lord David Blunkett, has since admitted that introducing the draconian punishments under Tony Blair's Labour government remains his "biggest regret".
Human Rights Concerns and Individual Cases
The latest projections suggest the government is prepared to leave IPP prisoners such as Leroy Douglas – jailed in 2005 for robbing a mobile phone – to languish for up to 25 years. His case is currently being investigated by the United Nations, which is reviewing whether Britain is breaching human rights law through arbitrary detention.
The total IPP prison population in 2030 is likely to be even higher because the projections exclude:
- Those who have been released but find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle of indefinite prison recalls for breaches of strict licence conditions
- Hundreds of people being held in secure hospitals after their mental health deteriorated while serving the jail term, described as a form of "psychological torture"
The Scale of the Problem
The controversial sentencing policy was scrapped in 2012, but not retrospectively, leaving thousands incarcerated indefinitely, with some trapped for up to 22 times longer than their original minimum term. Almost 2,400 individuals were still languishing on IPP sentences in December 2025, including 924 who have never been released. The majority have served at least ten years longer than their original minimum term.
In 2022, the cross-party justice committee inquiry found the sentences were "irredeemably flawed" and called for all IPP prisoners to be resentenced, but successive governments have refused to act on this recommendation.
Official Warnings and Campaigner Responses
Lord Thomas, a crossbench peer who served as head of the judiciary as lord chief justice from 2013 to 2017, has repeatedly warned that the government will have blood on its hands unless it takes action to help those trapped under these "simply unjust" punishments. He has urged prisons minister James Timpson to give all IPP prisoners a release date within two years of their next parole review, as part of a package of proposals put forward by the Howard League for Penal Reform.
Campaign group United Group for Reform of IPP (UNGRIPP) agreed that the government's action plan will not "move the dial" and called for the government to end this nightmare. A spokesperson stated: "The government is substituting 'projections' for justice. We know the IPP sentence kills; the government knows it too. For 11 years, they have hidden behind 'Action Plans' that do nothing to move the dial."
Family Impact and Political Pressure
Families and supporters last month joined UNGRIPP as they launched an exhibition in justice secretary David Lammy's north London constituency, which will see thousands of stones painted red for every IPP prisoner languishing in a cell. Others will be painted white for those who have not survived the jail term.
Shirley Debono, of IPP Committee in Action, said many had been "left to rot" for so long that they no longer have friends or family on the outside to support them. Responding to the projection figures, she added: "Those figures tell the story. How the government can just watch this when they know they can stop this right now by resentencing all these IPP prisoners... It's beyond words what is happening."
Systemic Barriers to Progress
Separate data, revealed in answer to a Parliamentary question in December, shows that the government is continuing to block many IPP prisoners from progressing to open conditions. Between January and March 2025, the Parole Board recommended 34 IPP prisoners for moves to open prisons. However, then-justice secretary Shabana Mahmood rejected their decision in a third of the cases.
A Ministry of Justice spokesman responded: "It is right that IPP sentences were abolished, and we have already taken action to support these offenders to move on with their lives. This includes additional support for IPP prisoners and changing the law to ensure those serving these sentences in the community can be more swiftly considered for licence termination. Since April 2023, the never-released IPP population has fallen by 30 percent, and all but a handful of those remaining IPP prisoners have repeatedly been found by the independent Parole Board to be too dangerous to live in the community."
