Private school pupil numbers have declined significantly following Labour's imposition of VAT on school fees, with 30,000 fewer students enrolled since before the policy took effect. New figures from the Independent Schools Council (ISC) annual census reveal there are now 526,611 pupils in private schools, down from 556,551 two years ago.
The bulk of the decrease—20,000 pupils—occurred in the last year alone, suggesting that many families are being priced out of the sector due to the 20 per cent tax, which came into effect in January 2025. Labour originally estimated the sector would shrink by only 37,000 pupils in the long run as a result of the policy, but this may now prove to be an underestimate.
Impact on Year Groups and Regions
The data shows pupil numbers are down by 6.6 per cent in some year groups. Fewer families are choosing to enrol at the start of primary, prep school, or sixth form, indicating that new starters are being deterred. Pupils fell across all areas, but the biggest regional decline was in Scotland, where the reduction was 5.6 per cent, followed by Wales with 6 per cent and the North East with 6.4 per cent.
Direct comparison of schools that completed the survey in both 2025 and 2026 showed the biggest proportional drops were at the start of sixth form and primary Year 1. Primaries and preps showed a larger overall fall in numbers—5 per cent—than secondaries up to GCSE year, which saw a fall of 3.3 per cent. Numbers starting sixth form in Year 12 fell by 6.6 per cent, the largest decrease, while the smallest declines were for Year 11 and Year 13, the GCSE and A-level exam years.
Reactions and Wider Context
ISC chief executive Julie Robinson said: 'This year's census shows a significant fall in pupil numbers across independent schools. Behind these figures are families facing difficult financial decisions and schools working hard to preserve the opportunities, expertise, and support that parents value. While independent schools remain resilient, these trends demonstrate that policy decisions can have real consequences for families' educational choices.'
While a declining birth rate overall is causing a shrinkage of the entire pupil population, it appears private school numbers are being hit hardest. The overall pupil population of England fell by 0.66 per cent between January 2024 and January 2025. About 100 private schools have announced closure since VAT on fees was introduced.
Saqib Bhatti, the shadow schools minister, said: 'Children and families are paying the cost of a policy that is disrupting education without delivering the benefits Labour promised.' The Government has been contacted for comment.
