Oscars 2026: Forecasting the Major Categories and Overlooked Contenders
As the 2026 Oscars ceremony approaches this Sunday, the awards season has been marked by dramatic twists, controversies, and last-minute speculation. Adam White provides an in-depth analysis of who is likely to triumph in the major categories, who truly deserves the accolades, and which performances were unjustly snubbed.
The Eddie Murphy Effect: Jessie Buckley's Oscar Hurdle
In 2007, Eddie Murphy's release of Norbit during the Oscar voting period is widely believed to have cost him a guaranteed win for Dreamgirls. Fast forward to 2026, and a similar scenario may be unfolding for Jessie Buckley. Her role in Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Bride! has been critically panned, with The Times describing her performance as "astonishingly poor" and "catastrophically ill-judged." This, coupled with a viral clip of Buckley expressing anti-cat sentiments, could potentially derail her Oscar chances for Hamnet, despite her powerful portrayal of a grieving mother.
However, this speculation might simply reflect awards season fatigue, as voters and pundits alike grow restless ahead of the ceremony. The discourse has shifted unexpectedly, with Timothée Chalamet's once-assured Best Actor campaign for Marty Supreme now facing stiff competition from Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.
Best Picture: A Tight Race Between Titans
Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Train Dreams.
Will win: One Battle After Another. This epic drama has long been considered the frontrunner, with its compelling narrative and critical acclaim positioning it as the year's best film.
Should win: One Battle After Another. It stands out as the most exceptional cinematic achievement of 2025, deserving of the top honor.
Shoulda got a look-in: It Was Just an Accident. Jafar Panahi's urgent and relevant drama was overlooked, as was the horror hit Weapons, which merited a nomination over F1.
The recent Bafta controversy, where Tourette syndrome campaigner John Davidson inadvertently yelled a racist slur at Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo during the ceremony, has sparked renewed appreciation for Sinners. This incident highlighted the challenges Black artists face, potentially boosting the film's Oscar prospects. Nevertheless, One Battle After Another remains the likely victor.
Best Actor: A Suddenly Thrilling Category
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Will win: Michael B. Jordan. His recent Actor Award win, combined with the positive spotlight from the Bafta incident and his popularity in the industry, makes him the favorite. Jordan's dual role as twins in Sinners has been widely praised.
Should win: Timothée Chalamet. His performance in Marty Supreme is a bold, funny, and bravely obnoxious showcase of star power, though his overt campaign for the award may have alienated some voters.
Shoulda got a look-in: Josh O'Connor. His standout role in The Mastermind as a grotesque art thief was a highlight of the year, yet he failed to secure a nomination.
Best Actress: Buckley's Likely Triumph Amid Strong Competition
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia).
Will win: Jessie Buckley. Despite the Norbit-esque controversy, her affecting performance in Hamnet is expected to earn her first Oscar.
Should win: Rose Byrne. Her funny and freaky turn in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You showcases her decades of underrated talent, making her a deserving winner.
Shoulda got a look-in: Jennifer Lawrence. Her career-best work in Lynne Ramsay's Die My Love was unjustly ignored by awards bodies.
Best Supporting Actor: A Wide-Open Field
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value).
Will win: Sean Penn. His big, funny, and mad performance in One Battle After Another, coupled with his Bafta and Actor Award wins, positions him as the frontrunner.
Should win: Benicio del Toro. His sharp and sensitive work in the same film provides a wholesome contrast, though it may be overlooked.
Shoulda got a look-in: Ralph Fiennes. His gentle whimsy in 28 Years Later deserved recognition in this competitive category.
Best Supporting Actress: Taylor's Standout Performance
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).
Will win: Teyana Taylor. Her volatile revolutionary in One Battle After Another is the performance of the year, finding humanity in a flawed character.
Should win: Teyana Taylor. She exemplifies true supporting work, stealing the show without category fraud.
Shoulda got a look-in: Gwyneth Paltrow. Her career-best role in Marty Supreme was bafflingly overlooked, similar to Jennifer Lawrence's snub.
Best Director: Anderson vs. Coogler
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet).
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson. He is the clear favorite for his masterful direction of One Battle After Another, though a Sinners sweep could see Ryan Coogler upset.
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson. His film is the year's directorial achievement, warranting the award.
Shoulda got a look-in: Mary Bronstein. Her work on If I Had Legs I'd Kick You on a shoestring budget was a stressful wonder that deserved nomination.
As the Oscars 2026 ceremony nears, the potential for surprises remains high, particularly with Sinners gaining momentum. Regardless of the outcomes, this year's nominations have sparked lively debate about artistic merit, industry politics, and the ever-unpredictable nature of awards season.
