Polling Analyst Predicts Box Office Disaster for Controversial First Lady Film
CNN's renowned polling guru Harry Enten has delivered a stark prediction for the upcoming documentary about former First Lady Melania Trump, forecasting what he describes as a "humiliating" opening weekend at the box office. The film, simply titled Melania, is projected to earn between just $1 million and $5 million during its crucial first days in cinemas worldwide.
Massive Investment Meets Meager Returns
This projected performance becomes particularly striking when contrasted with the substantial financial backing behind the project. Amazon reportedly spent a whopping $75 million to acquire the documentary's rights and fund an extensive marketing campaign. Enten highlighted during an appearance on CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront that $40 million of this sum was dedicated to purchasing the rights alone, with an additional $35 million allocated to promotion and advertising efforts.
"All of the advertising, all of that jazz to try and build up that audience, which right now doesn't seem like they're rushing to actually see it," Enten remarked, casting doubt on the effectiveness of Amazon's promotional strategy.
Unfavourable Comparisons and Critical Forecasts
To put these projections into perspective, Enten compared the documentary's anticipated performance with that of Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, which remains the highest-grossing documentary of all time during its opening weekend. That film earned $23.9 million in 2004, which, when adjusted for inflation, equates to approximately $41 million in today's currency.
"Melania, not anywhere close," Enten stated bluntly, emphasising the vast gulf between the two documentaries' expected financial success.
Furthermore, the polling analyst provided a concerning prediction regarding the film's critical reception. He suggested there is a 63 percent chance that Melania will receive a rating below 20 percent on the influential review aggregation website Rotten Tomatoes. "That's not good, Erin. That's not good, being below 20 percent," he cautioned during his television appearance.
Controversy Surrounds Production and Premiere
The documentary has been mired in controversy from its inception, not least due to the involvement of director Brett Ratner. The film marks Ratner's return to directing following a hiatus after multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct in 2017, allegations he has consistently denied without facing criminal charges.
Additional backlash emerged following a special black-tie premiere held at the White House this past weekend. The opulent event, attended by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, Apple's Tim Cook, and former boxer Mike Tyson, drew criticism for its timing. It occurred mere hours after the fatal shooting of 37-year-old ICU nurse Alex Pretti by a federal agent in Minnesota, a juxtaposition that sparked considerable public outcry.
Ticket Sales Paint a Bleak Picture
Despite former President Donald Trump's enthusiastic promotion, claiming tickets are "selling out, FAST," available evidence suggests a very different reality. Social media users across the United States have shared numerous screenshots revealing near-empty theater bookings in major cities.
- In Boston's largest AMC cinema, bookings appeared sparse.
- A Friday night showing at a Cinemark theater in Jacksonville, Florida, showed zero tickets sold.
- New York City AMC theaters displayed every seat still available for multiple screenings.
One user highlighted the situation by posting a screenshot of a 7:30pm Friday showing in Times Square with zero seats sold, asking sarcastically, "Question: Is zero seats sold for 'Melania' on opening night at 7:30pm in Times Square bad, or is that normal?"
The trend appears consistent in the United Kingdom as well. Tim Richards, chief executive of major cinema chain Vue, described ticket sales as "soft" to The Guardian. The newspaper reported that at Vue's flagship Islington branch in London, just one ticket had been sold for the first 3:10pm screening on Friday, with only two bookings for the 6pm showing.
Political Connections and Public Perception
Enten also drew attention to the political context surrounding the film's release, noting that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos's wealth has increased by approximately $35 billion since early November 2024. "I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent [by Amazon]," he suggested, alluding to potential perceptions of favourable treatment.
Amazon has marketed the documentary as an unprecedented inside look at one of global politics' most enigmatic figures, promising insights into Melania Trump's life and her relationship with her husband over the twenty days leading up to his inauguration. "Everyone wants to know, so here it is," the former First Lady states in the film's trailer.
However, as Melania prepares for its global theatrical release on Friday, January 30, the disparity between its substantial budget, controversial backdrop, and dismal early sales indicators suggests the public's curiosity may not translate into box office success. The coming weekend will ultimately reveal whether Harry Enten's pessimistic forecast proves accurate.
