China's Carbon Emissions Plateau for Two Consecutive Years
China's carbon dioxide emissions have now been flat or falling for nearly two years, raising significant questions about whether the world's largest emitter has reached a critical turning point in its environmental trajectory. According to new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief, emissions fell by one percent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and likely declined by approximately 0.3 percent over the entire year. This keeps emissions slightly below the record levels achieved in early 2024, when China's carbon output last peaked.
Analysis of the Current Emissions Plateau
The figures represent the longest stretch on record where emissions stabilization has not been driven by an economic slowdown within the country. Lauri Myllyvirta, the centre's lead analyst, told The Independent, "I think it's clear that emissions have plateaued, but there is a question mark about the next couple of years since the government is officially only targeting a peak in coal consumption around 2027, and in general even a plateau means there could be year-to-year ups and downs due to seasonal factors."
This stabilization has occurred despite continued growth in electricity demand, which increased by 520 terawatt hours in 2025. Remarkably, new clean generation more than covered that increase. Solar output rose by 43 percent year-on-year, wind generation increased by 14 percent, and nuclear power grew by eight percent, together supplying roughly 530 terawatt hours of additional electricity—slightly more than the growth in demand.
Key Drivers Behind the Emissions Trend
As a result, coal-fired generation fell by 1.9 percent and overall power-sector emissions dropped by 1.5 percent. Emissions from transport declined by three percent, while cement and other building materials fell by seven percent. Metals production also recorded a three percent decline. When asked what was driving the plateau, Mr Myllyvirta explained, "Rapid growth in clean energy and electrified transport are the key factors. Declining demand for cement and steel is also significant, and the drop in steel emissions should accelerate if the structural shift to more recycled steel and electric arc steelmaking happens as targeted."
Another notable shift occurred in energy storage. China added 75 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2025, while peak electricity demand increased by 55 gigawatts. This marked the first year that storage growth outpaced peak demand growth, potentially reducing the need to rely on new coal and gas plants to meet short bursts of high demand.
Challenges and Future Outlook
However, the overall picture remains finely balanced. The annual decline in emissions was marginal, with fossil fuel emissions edging up by 0.1 percent in 2025, only offset by a sharp fall in emissions from cement production. Emissions are only slightly below the early 2024 peak, meaning a modest rebound could see them exceed that previous high. The chemicals industry remains the main source of growth, with emissions from the sector rising 12 percent in 2025, driven by increases in coal and oil use. Although chemicals account for around 13 percent of China's total emissions, the pace of expansion is having an outsized impact. Without the rise in chemicals, total emissions would have fallen by an estimated two percent rather than 0.3 percent.
Whether the current plateau becomes a sustained decline will depend largely on decisions in the next five-year plan, due in March. Mr Myllyvirta emphasized, "Since policymakers do not appear ready to commit to cutting emissions over the next five years, the most important thing would be removing barriers to continued growth in clean energy, especially making the operation of power grids and coal power plants more flexible and using energy storage to accommodate much higher shares of solar and wind in the grid. It will also be necessary to start limiting the growth of coal power capacity."
He added that recent clean-energy additions could help prevent a rebound in the short term. "One positive thing is that the year-end surge in clean energy additions will continue to drive up clean power supply this year, so there is a good chance that there is no rebound in emissions before the 2027 coal peak." China's official position remains that carbon dioxide emissions will peak "before 2030." For now, the data suggest a plateau. Whether it proves to be the start of a lasting decline will become clearer over the next two to three years, with critical policy decisions on the horizon.
