Climate Change Tripled Wildfire Risk in Chile and Argentina, Study Reveals
A team of researchers has issued a stark warning that human-caused climate change played a critical role in the recent ferocious wildfires that ravaged parts of Chile and Argentina's Patagonia region. According to their findings, the extremely high-risk conditions that led to widespread burning were made up to three times more likely compared to a world without global warming.
Quantifying the Climate Impact
The World Weather Attribution initiative, a scientific group that investigates extreme weather events promptly after they occur, conducted the study. Their analysis revealed that the hot, dry, and gusty weather fueling last month's deadly wildfires in central and southern Chile was made approximately 200% more likely by human-made greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, the high-fire-risk conditions driving blazes in southern Argentina were made 150% more likely due to climate change.
Researchers emphasized that this probability will only escalate as humanity continues to burn fossil fuels and release more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.
Devastation Across the Region
The wildfires that tore through Chile's Biobio and Ñuble regions in mid-January resulted in tragic consequences:
- 23 fatalities
- Destruction of over 1,000 houses and structures
- Tens of thousands of people forced to flee their homes
All these fires were caused by human activity, whether through arson or negligence. In southern Argentina, fires initially ignited by lightning forced the evacuation of thousands of tourists and residents. They burned through more than 45,000 hectares (174 square miles) of native forest, including significant portions of the Los Alerces National Park—a UNESCO World Heritage site home to ancient trees dating back 2,600 years.
Scientific Methodology and Confidence
This study represents the first scientific assessment of global warming's role in intensifying some of the most severe wildfire emergencies to affect Chile and Argentina in recent years. It falls within the emerging subfield of climate science known as weather attribution, which is rapidly evolving to meet public demand for information about how climate change influences natural disasters.
Although the World Weather Attribution report has not yet undergone peer review or publication in a scientific journal, it employs widely accepted methods. These include analyzing data and computer model simulations to compare current climate conditions with historical weather patterns.
"Overall, we're confident in saying that the main driver of this increased fire risk is human-caused warming," stated Clair Barnes, a research associate with World Weather Attribution, during a briefing with reporters. "These trends are projected to continue in the future as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels."
Creating a Tinderbox Environment
The study identified that record droughts and scorching temperatures created conditions highly conducive to wildfires in both Chile and Argentina. Additionally, single-species plantations of highly flammable trees like pines facilitated easier fire spread in both areas. These invasive species have replaced native, more fire-resistant ecosystems, transforming shrub, brush, and grass into effective kindling.
In Argentina's Patagonia, the town of El Bolsón recorded its highest January temperature on record at 38.4 degrees Celsius (101 degrees Fahrenheit). Nearby Esquel, close to Los Alerces National Park, experienced 11 consecutive days of maximum temperatures in January, marking its second-longest heat wave in 65 years.
While temperatures in Chile preceding the fires were high, they did not break records. Researchers estimated that seasonal rainfall from November to January—before the peak burning period—was approximately 25% weaker in Chile and 20% less intense in Argentine Patagonia than it would have been without a global temperature rise of at least 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.
"This, together with higher-than-average temperatures, led to vegetation being submitted to stress, very low humidity in the soil," explained Juan Antonio Rivera, an Argentine researcher and study author. "Once the wildfires began... there was sufficient fuel to extend and be sustained over time."
Diverging Government Responses
Chile has significantly increased its wildfire-fighting budget by 110% over the past four years under left-wing President Gabriel Boric, enhancing fire forecasting capabilities and investing in new equipment. In contrast, Argentina's response may have been hampered by a harsh austerity program under libertarian President Javier Milei.
Researchers cited budget cuts to firefighting crews, inadequate planning, and deregulation of tourism activities in Patagonia's national parks as factors potentially weakening Argentina's ability to combat the fires. This assessment was corroborated by firefighters, park rangers, and officials involved in disaster relief who spoke with The Associated Press.
President Milei, similar to his ally former U.S. President Donald Trump, has denied any connection between climate change and human activities. His office did not immediately respond to requests for comment early Wednesday.
"Unfortunately, with a government that does not understand climate change and its connection to human activities, where nature is secondary in terms of priorities, these situations get worse and wildfires end up having greater impacts than they should," Rivera lamented. "The situation is still not under control."
