A Super El Niño is now almost certain to arrive this summer, according to scientists from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The Daily Mail has created a step-by-step graphic to showcase the true scale of the devastation this unusual climate event will likely cause.
What is El Niño?
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern that cycles between a hot El Niño and a cool La Niña phase every two to seven years. During the El Niño part of the cycle, warm waters that build up in the Pacific spread out and raise the Earth's average surface temperature. This heat escapes into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures for months.
What Makes This Year's Event 'Super'?
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation has been ongoing for hundreds of thousands of years. However, current signs point to this year being one of the strongest El Niño patterns ever recorded. From late April to mid-May, sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific were approaching El Niño thresholds, according to the WMO. A Super El Niño is on its way, with an 80 per cent likelihood of occurrence during June–August 2026, and a 90 per cent chance this will continue until at least November.
How Will a Super El Niño Impact Global Temperatures?
According to the WMO, above-normal temperatures are expected in 'nearly all parts of the globe'. The strongest heat signals are forecast across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. In the Southern Hemisphere, Northern South America is likely to see the strongest warming, while Southern Africa is forecast to experience widespread above-normal temperatures. In Australia, warmer conditions are mainly expected along the western, southern, and eastern coasts. Tropical regions are also forecast to be hotter than normal, especially Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent. These increasing surface temperatures are fed by unusually warm subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, where temperatures are 6°C above average, providing a substantial reservoir of heat.
How Will a Super El Niño Affect Rainfall?
While each El Niño is unique, the event is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. In contrast, drier conditions are expected over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. During Boreal summer, El Niño's warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean while hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.
How Likely is a Super El Niño This Summer?
Scientists from the WMO warn there is now an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026, and a 90 per cent chance this will continue until at least November. 'The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty,' said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo added: 'We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.' The most recent El Niño, in 2023–24, was one of the five strongest on record and played a role in record global temperatures in 2024. The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on economies and communities.
