Alan Milburn, the former Labour cabinet minister, has warned against seeking easy solutions to complex problems, a lesson that resonates a decade after the Brexit vote. Speaking at the launch of his review into youth unemployment, Milburn said: 'Everybody goes for the bloody easy solution, don’t they? You can’t just go for the easy solution, OK? There are no easy solutions, guys. None. They’re all hard.' His comments come as the UK approaches the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, a populist promise that has proven far from simple.
According to research by Stanford economist Nick Bloom and colleagues, UK GDP per head is up to 8% lower than it would have been had Britain remained in the EU. Business investment is nearly 18% lower, employment up to 4% lower, and productivity up to 4% lower. The years of political uncertainty following the vote froze investment, faltered trade, and stalled the economy, highlighting the damage from a lack of a clear plan.
Brexit's supporters promised benefits that would require a Singapore-on-Thames model of low taxes and deregulation, but this lacked public support. Most Brexit voters wanted extra money for the NHS, not a smaller state, and opposed chlorinated chicken imports from the US. The coalition of libertarians and anti-globalists was unstable, and the promised bonfire of red tape proved unpopular with voters who valued food standards and public services.
Geopolitical shifts have further complicated matters. Under Donald Trump, closer US ties are less appealing, while tensions with China and war in the Middle East expose weaknesses in global trade. Forging closer ties with near neighbours makes increasing sense, spurring calls to rejoin the EU. However, as former Bank of England policymaker Danny Blanchflower notes, 'People can’t say: I want to rejoin. On what terms? It’s far too simplistic.'
The lesson from Brexit, as Milburn's argument underscores, is that there are no easy solutions to hard problems. Whether addressing youth unemployment or the UK's relationship with Europe, complex issues require careful, nuanced approaches rather than populist silver bullets.
