Labour is facing a catastrophic defeat in its last remaining stronghold of London, with the party's own failures on housing policy and internal divisions driving voters to the Greens. According to a Guardian analysis, the party that once built 52,000 council homes in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher's government constructed only 280 during Tony Blair's decade in power.
The Scale of the Crisis
Pollsters project that Labour will suffer its worst results in London for 50 years in next Thursday's local elections. One council leader described the contest as "the biggest fight of my political life." The Greens are poised to win mayoralties in Lewisham and Hackney and are optimistic about dislodging several inner-city councils from Labour control.
London accounts for more than a third of the council seats being contested, making Labour's retreat on its home turf one of the biggest stories of the weekend. The impact on a party already in sharp decline is hard to overstate, as London is where Keir Starmer, David Lammy, and Wes Streeting hold their parliamentary seats.
The Housing Betrayal
Central to the Green surge is the issue of housing. Labour historically built its voter base through council housing provision, offering working-class Londoners a simple deal: back us and we'll house you. However, the party's abandonment of this promise has proven catastrophic.
In the 1980s, London built nearly 52,000 council homes. Under Tony Blair from 1997 to 2007, only 280 were constructed. The wholesale transfer of estates from councils to housing associations was far larger under Labour than under the Tories. Gentrification battles in the 2010s saw inner-London Labour authorities passing council houses to private developers, claiming they had no other option.
The Greens are now using these stories—about Woodberry Down and the Heygate—as reasons not to vote Labour. The party's triple lock of controlling London local authorities, City Hall, and Westminster has not prevented the housing crisis, with the Greens arguing that Labour's claims of powerlessness are disingenuous.
Internal Divisions and Moral Failures
Beyond housing, Labour is suffering from internal divisions and perceived moral failures. Voters cite the party's complicity in the destruction of Gaza and its adoption of hardline immigration rhetoric as reasons for their defection. In a city where almost half the population is from ethnic minorities, such policies are fatal, demonstrating contempt for the very voters Labour expects to turn out for them.
The press may attribute the Greens' success to charismatic leadership, but the reality is more profound. As one senior Labour councillor put it: "All our chickens are coming home to roost." The party's strategy of chasing 'hero voters' has alienated a significant chunk of the electorate, and it remains unclear how any leader recovers from that.
The Green Alternative
The Greens now have about 225,000 members, with their youth wing alone almost as big as the entire Liberal Democrats. Their campaign focuses on fair housing, and they have an easy target in a Labour party that claims it cannot do much about the crisis beyond waiting for the market to provide more homes.
The renters' rights that come into effect on Friday are a case in point: tenants can no longer be summarily evicted, but they can still be priced out at the next rent increase. The weekend after next, senior Labour figures will ask themselves why they have done so badly in London. The answer, as this analysis suggests, is themselves.
