Welsh Voters Show High Levels of Confusion Over Devolution and Upcoming Election System
A comprehensive report released on Wednesday has uncovered significant gaps in public understanding among Welsh voters regarding devolution and the forthcoming Senedd elections in May. The polling research, conducted by Cardiff University and YouGov in February with a representative sample of 1,544 people, indicates that 26 years after devolution began, many remain uncertain about which policy decisions are handled by Cardiff Bay versus Westminster.
Nearly 60% of Welsh voters are unaware of how the new closed list system will operate in the May elections, with only 7% correctly identifying this crucial change. Additionally, 58% did not know which voting system will be used, highlighting a critical lack of awareness as the election approaches.
Devolution Knowledge Remains Patchy Among the Public
The findings reveal deep-seated confusion over devolved powers. One-third of respondents were unaware that health and education are devolved to the Welsh government, and only 1% could correctly identify responsibility for eight key policy areas. Furthermore, nearly 70% either answered incorrectly or did not know that policing in Wales, unlike in Scotland, is under UK government control, while 29% were mistaken or unaware that immigration policy is decided by Westminster.
Professor Stephen Cushion, the lead researcher, emphasised that these gaps raise urgent questions about public access to political information. During an election period, these knowledge deficits matter for democratic accountability, as voters need to make well-informed decisions about who will govern Wales in the coming years.
Media Consumption Contributes to Constitutional Blurring
Some of the confusion can be attributed to media habits, according to the report. UK-wide media outlets serve as the primary news source for 46% of respondents, compared to just 10% who rely mainly on Wales-focused and Wales-produced news. Almost half of respondents criticised UK-wide outlets for doing a poor job of reporting on Wales, with 19% citing an excessive focus on London and south-east England as the biggest reason.
Researchers found that respondents often struggled to place news stories in the correct constitutional context. For example, many misread a BBC website story about an England-only junior doctors' strike as being UK-wide. Cushion suggested that clearer labelling in news reporting could help voters match party promises to the appropriate tier of government this May.
Uneven Recognition of Welsh Political Figures
Recognition of Welsh political figures was notably uneven in the poll. The Labour first minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, was recognised by 62% of participants, while her likely successor, Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth, was known by 47%. In contrast, Dan Thomas, appointed as Reform's leader in Wales last month, was correctly identified by only 10% of respondents, whereas the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, was almost universally recognised at 94%.
Thomas is poised to become opposition leader in the Senedd and could even be first minister after May's elections. Polls consistently suggest that Plaid Cymru and Reform will push incumbent Welsh Labour into third place, potentially ending more than 100 years of Labour hegemony in Wales.
The report underscores the need for enhanced public education and media clarity to ensure voters are adequately informed ahead of the pivotal Senedd elections.
