Fresh violence between Iran and the United States has pushed the region ever closer to a dangerous knife-edge, where an explosion of all-out war or a settlement could occur—both presenting a nightmare for President Donald Trump.
Renewed Strikes Shatter Ceasefire Hopes
Fresh strikes between American forces and Iran have shattered hopes of an imminent re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, they indicate peace talks are veering towards a tipping point that could go either way—peace or another bloody all-out war. US forces struck Iranian military targets in the coastal town of Bandar Abbas, and Tehran responded with claims it had attacked an American base.
The US airstrike was in response to an Iranian attack on a US commercial vessel using four drones, all of which were intercepted. Air defences were activated in and around Kuwait, signalling that a US base there had been targeted by Tehran's missile teams. All of this points to an extremely dangerous phase in the crisis, nearing a critical point that could mean a resumption of all-out war.
Peace Talks Continue Amid Violence
But typically of this war-battered region, an explosion of violence does not mean an end to the peace talks ongoing behind the scenes. Conversely, it could indicate the US is close to settling a deal, as telegraphed loudly by Washington over the past week, though not so much by Tehran. Both sides are keen for an end to this war. Iran is showing conciliation towards its increasingly outraged and economically hit public by releasing controls on the internet, while in the US the war is a political catastrophe for President Trump.
Washington and Tehran are thought to be in the final stages of drafting a memorandum of understanding, even though each has demands incompatible with the other. It is thought the US is now unwilling to swap the release of sanctions for Tehran's enriched uranium, which it is keen to obtain to halt Iran's nuclear programme. It remains unclear whether the US will pivot away from Israel by acceding to Tehran's demands that Lebanon be included in a peace settlement, thus shielding Hezbollah. This would not lead to lasting peace between Israel and Hezbollah, nor would it remove the threat to Israel from the Lebanese militant group's missiles.
Growing Tensions Between Washington and Israel
A huge tension is growing between Washington and Israel over this uncertainty—Tehran wants to protect its proxy in Lebanon, while Israel is very keen for this not to happen. And while none of the rumours emerging from negotiations indicate Iran and the US are on the same page regarding the nuclear issue, talks continue. Iran is testing the US, sensing vulnerability in Trump's desperation for an off-ramp, and will likely prod the American military even further. Trump's demands for the region to accept the Abraham Accords, which would normalise relations between Israel and the rest of the Middle East, have been met with silence.
This has been hugely significant for Tehran, which is watching the reaction of its neighbouring states intently and sensing a rejection of outright support for Trump. This will mean a tense period that could tip the region towards war or reach a settlement of sorts, possibly kicking the nuclear issue down the road and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That points towards a resounding humiliation for President Trump, meaning his war has achieved nothing and put Iran in a stronger position than it was under the Obama administration, which introduced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that Trump tore up.
