Norwegian politicians are preparing for potential fallout in US-Norway relations if Donald Trump is not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Monday, with analysts warning the US president could impose tariffs, demand higher Nato contributions, or even declare Norway an enemy.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee confirmed on Thursday that it had reached a decision on the 2025 laureate several days before Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire under Trump's Gaza plan. Given the timing and the committee's composition, most experts believe it is highly unlikely Trump will win, raising concerns about his reaction.
Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway's Socialist Left party, said Oslo must be 'prepared for anything' given Trump's volatile and authoritarian tendencies. 'The Nobel Committee is an independent body, but I'm not sure Trump knows that,' she told the Guardian.
Trump has long claimed he deserves the prize, reportedly calling former Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg in July to inquire about it. At the UN last month, he falsely claimed to have halted seven wars, telling world leaders: 'Everyone says I should get the Nobel peace prize.'
Analyst Harald Stanghelle speculated that retribution could include tariffs or higher Nato demands. 'He is so unpredictable. It could be a challenging situation,' he said, adding that a Trump win would be the 'biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel peace prize.'
Other likely candidates include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom, according to Peace Research Institute Oslo director Nina Græger.
