Donald Trump claimed on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran "has been largely negotiated" following calls with a Pakistani mediator, Gulf allies, and Israel, potentially paving the way for an end to the war launched by the US and Israel in February. Writing on his social media platform, Trump stated that "final aspects and details" of a "memorandum of understanding" were still under discussion and would "be announced shortly," adding that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of the agreement.
Iranian Denial and Pakistani Mediation
However, Iran's Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control, a red line for the US. The agency stated on Telegram that "the management of the Strait, determining the route, time, method of passage, and issuing permits will continue to be the monopoly and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran," describing Trump's assertion as "inconsistent with reality." Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, later congratulated Trump on his peace efforts and expressed hope that Pakistan would host another round of talks between the US and Iran "very soon." Sharif described the US president's call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan, and Pakistan as "very useful and productive." Pakistan's army chief, Syed Asim Munir, a key figure in the negotiations, has held meetings in Tehran with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Details of the Potential Deal
Trump's announcement followed a Pakistani source telling Reuters that Iran and Pakistan had submitted a revised proposal to the US to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios, the draft agreement includes the reopening of the strait with no tolls during a 60-day ceasefire extension, allowing Iran to freely sell oil, and negotiations on curbing its nuclear program. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports. The Associated Press cited a regional source indicating that the potential deal would include an official declaration of the war's end, two-month negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, the opening of the shipping lane by Iran, and an end to the US blockade. Three senior Iranian officials told the New York Times that the agreement would stop fighting in Iran and Lebanon and could release $25bn in frozen Iranian assets overseas, with a nuclear agreement to be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.
Political Reactions and Tensions
Hints of progress emerged before Trump's announcement, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating during a visit to India that "news" might arrive "later today," even as Trump continued to threaten strikes on Iran. In his post, Trump mentioned phone discussions with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan's army chief Munir, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The lead-up remained tense, with Trump telling CBS and Axios he would only sign a deal "where we get everything we want" and threatening renewed strikes if no deal was reached. The news of a potential deal dismayed Republican hawks, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who denounced the rumored terms as too similar to the 2015 JCPOA negotiated under Barack Obama. Pompeo described the deal as "straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook" and a boon to the IRGC. In response, White House communications director Steven Cheung harshly criticized Pompeo, stating he had no idea what he was talking about. Former Obama negotiator Ben Rhodes also dismissed the war's achievements, arguing that Operation Epic Fury had merely strengthened the IRGC's control over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
