Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel recently joined protests against the US indictment of former president Raúl Castro, who faces charges of conspiracy to kill US nationals, four counts of murder, and two counts of destruction of aircraft over the downing of two planes in 1996. The move has drawn comparisons to the indictment of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, which was used to justify his capture by US forces.
US War Machine Targets Cuba
Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American secretary of state, has long sought the fall of Cuba's communist government. While professing a preference for a negotiated settlement, he admitted the chances of a deal are not high. The economic devastation inflicted by decades of US sanctions, compounded by a crippling oil blockade introduced by Donald Trump in January, is evident. During a recent visit, I witnessed the hardship firsthand.
Evidence Points to Aggression
The Trump administration is leaking intelligence claiming Cuba acquired over 300 military drones, supposedly to attack the US base at Guantánamo Bay. A senior US official described it as a growing threat. However, the idea that a weakened Cuba would attack a superpower 90 miles away, inviting overwhelming retaliation, is a fantasy reminiscent of the weapons of mass destruction pretext for the Iraq war.
Trump has been explicit about his intentions. In March, he declared he would have the honour of taking Cuba, adding he could do anything he wanted with it. Days ago, the USS Nimitz, the US Navy's oldest aircraft carrier, arrived in the Caribbean for a maritime exercise.
Failure Can Make Declining Powers More Dangerous
Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, noted the US was humiliated by Iran, but failure does not always restrain declining powers; it can make them more dangerous. Trump and his team may believe that conquering Cuba, which has defied Washington for nearly seven decades, could restore US military supremacy.
Impact on Ordinary Cubans
US economic warfare has ground Cubans down. A taxi driver told me petrol prices jumped from $1.20 to $8 per litre, while the average monthly salary is about $16. Medical staff struggle to afford travel to hospitals lacking crucial medicines. Some Cubans blame Trump; others simply want the nightmare to end. A taxi driver said, "Cubans live on hope, but something has to happen because the people can't take it any longer."
Cuban journalist Daniel Montero noted the government's popularity is at an all-time low, and sanctions are succeeding in eroding support. The US calculation appears to be that Cubans will acquiesce to anything promising an end to their suffering.
Potential for Resistance
Cuba's military capabilities are far inferior to Iran's, and if Washington invades, it can. But resistance is likely. When the US attacked Caracas in January, 32 Cuban troops died. A painter told me, "Cubans have always defended ourselves with a machete or a stick," citing the tradition of Indigenous leader Hatuey. He doubted Americans would impose their will, as history shows they cannot.
What Would a US Victory Mean?
If Trump secures a mission accomplished moment, Cuba could revert to its pre-revolution status as a US virtual colony, with railroads, sugar production, mines, and utilities dominated by US companies. Trump's grotesque AI video of Gaza, portraying rubble transformed into a luxury development, hints at his vision. Cuba's economy could be opened to US multinationals, including its healthcare system. There is no obvious opposition figure, and the US would install a stooge. Cubans enraged by the theft of their country might face violence similar to that inflicted on Iraqi and Afghan civilians.
Trump does not pretend to liberate others. A war on Cuba would be driven by revenge for US humiliation and greed, with profits flowing to elites and wreckage left to ordinary Cubans.
