Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith has called a referendum on separatism, but the move has done little to appease critics within her own United Conservative Party (UCP). The decision echoes the chaos of Brexit, as Smith faces a mutinous party and has pledged to campaign against the very vote she initiated.
A Confusing Referendum Question
The referendum question, unveiled on Thursday, is a tangled mess: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" The convoluted wording reflects its tortured genesis, involving grievance politics, improvised constitutional theory, personal ambition, infighting, backstabbing, bitter litigation, and an unprecedented data breach.
Brexit Comparisons Abound
Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University, noted that the Brexit analogy is apt: "Not only was it poorly thought out, but David Cameron put it to a ballot and then campaigned against it – which is exactly what Danielle Smith said she would do." Bratt warned that while Brexit was complicated, breaking up a country is even more severe. He called Smith's address "the most pro-Canada speech I've heard her give," but criticized her decision to call the vote unnecessarily.
Widespread Criticism
Edmonton Mayor Andrew Knack labeled the secession gamble "catastrophic." Federal Liberal MP Corey Hogan said Smith's "internal political problems" had become a "national crisis," and the "baffling, referendum-on-a-referendum question will do nothing to settle anything." Even separatists, whom Smith aimed to appease, felt betrayed. One prominent separatist leader accused Smith of lying to every Albertan, calling her "the most dishonest and corrupt leader in my lifetime." Another wrote that Smith had "betrayed" her base.
Internal Turmoil and Data Breach
The move capped months of speculation about how Smith would deliver on a promise to be "more democratic." A government committee controlled by the UCP tried to bring forward a decision on the referendum question but was foiled after a party staffer accidentally issued a press release before the meeting ended. The secessionist effort was further rocked by revelations that an allied group had illegally accessed confidential elections data, prompting investigations. A court later quashed the entire petition effort, ruling that the provincial government had not consulted First Nations, whose treaties with the Crown predate Alberta's creation.
Strategic Idiocy?
Political columnist Jen Gerson described the situation as "an episode of Veep," noting the surreality and disconnection from reality. "The problem is, you've got a political class here in Alberta that's tactically really smart, but strategically idiotic." She warned that the erosion of public debate could open up dark things in the population. Separatists promise autonomy and wealth, but skeptics fear the United States could exploit the uncertainty to inflame tensions. Canada's federal conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, has vowed to campaign for Alberta to remain in Canada, alongside likeminded Tories and business leaders.
"The separatist people have no genuine plan for what happens on day two," Gerson said. "We'll get yet another tactically brilliant, strategically idiotic move to further this crisis even more."
