Senior figures within the Blue Labour movement, previously seen as supportive of Andy Burnham's leadership ambitions, have instead thrown their weight behind Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, delivering a significant setback to the Greater Manchester mayor. Mr Burnham was formally announced as the Labour candidate for the Makerfield by-election on Tuesday, alongside his Reform UK opponent, local plumber Robert Kenyon.
Glasman and Stringer Back Mahmood
Influential peer Lord Maurice Glasman, founder of the Blue Labour faction on the party's right, and veteran MP Graham Stringer made clear they would not back Mr Burnham, citing his stance on rejoining the European Union. Their comments came at a conference marking a decade since the Brexit referendum, suggesting the coalition of support within Labour for Mr Burnham to replace Sir Keir Starmer as party leader and prime minister is fracturing.
Mr Burnham's supporters have already raised concerns about a dirty tricks campaign to prevent him from winning the by-election, pointing fingers at allies of the prime minister and supporters of leadership hopeful Wes Streeting. With Mr Streeting reopening the Brexit debate at the weekend by calling for rejoining the bloc as part of his leadership pitch, attention has turned to Mr Burnham's September comments in favour of rejoining, as he prepares to contest a seat that voted heavily to leave the EU.
Delayed Publication and Blue Labour's Shift
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones announced that the publication of the next tranche of papers on Peter Mandelson has been delayed by at least a month. Last week, Blue Labour publicly thanked former Makerfield MP Josh Simons for stepping down to make way for Mr Burnham, calling it a noble decision. Previously, Blue Labour chairman Dan Carden condemned Sir Keir for blocking Mr Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February. However, at the Brexit Unleashed conference, Lord Glasman and Mr Stringer instead backed Ms Mahmood.
Lord Glasman stated he has no doubts about wanting to see Home Secretary Mahmood lead the party. "I don't think that that's a futile hope," he told the conference. "Let's say Andy Burnham loses in Wigan and loses to Reform. I think that might concentrate the minds of Labour Party members quite clearly. So this is a fluid situation." He added, "The idea that our movement has produced a religious Muslim woman from Birmingham and Pakistani origin who's a genuine patriot is actually a sign of great hope for us." He also mentioned speaking to Blue Labour MP Jonathan Hinder about standing, warning that without someone telling the truth in the leadership campaign, the party would drift further into a pro-EU progressive fantasy and face obliteration at the next election.
Mr Stringer said, "Of the three more or less named runners and riders, none of them appeal. Their policies I don't think would be popular in the country, and if they're popular in the Labour Party, that is a problem for the Labour Party. So I'm hoping Shabana or somebody else will come forward who will actually approach the real issues before this country."
Polling Boost for Burnham
In a boost for Mr Burnham, research by pollsters More in Common found he is the best placed leadership hopeful to take on Nigel Farage. In a straight head-to-head, Mr Burnham beat Mr Farage by 14 percentage points, said Luke Tryl from More in Common. The Greater Manchester mayor also performed about 10 points better than Sir Keir Starmer against Mr Farage. In a briefing on this month's local election results, Mr Tryl noted that a "Burnham bounce" based on personal popularity was worth an estimated 20 points in the polls, making him the narrow favourite to win the constituency in next month's by-election. However, Mr Tryl warned that campaign events could affect the outcome, with a big question about how much the Brexit stance hurts candidates. He emphasised that if rejoining is seen by Makerfield voters as a sign that Westminster and Labour have moved on from the lessons of the 2016 vote, that is more dangerous.
Reform UK Candidate Confirmed
Robert Kenyon has been confirmed as Reform's candidate. He recently won a seat in the council elections where Reform swept the board in the Wigan area. Mr Kenyon also came second in the 2024 general election, losing to Labour's Josh Simons by just 5,000 votes. However, Reform has declined to answer questions about why the social media platform X suspended Mr Kenyon's account. Nigel Farage and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick are due to be in Makerfield on Wednesday to introduce Mr Kenyon as the candidate, with the announcement of a new economic policy focused on the cost of living.
