Andy Burnham has signalled his strongest intention yet to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership by announcing his candidacy in the upcoming Makerfield by-election. Josh Simons, the current MP, declared on Thursday he would resign to allow the Greater Manchester mayor to run. However, Burnham must first secure approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which previously blocked his bid in February’s Gorton and Denton by-election.
Obstacles on the Path to Westminster
Senior Labour sources indicate the NEC will not obstruct him this time, but a significant hurdle remains: winning the by-election against Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Makerfield, a Labour stronghold since 1983, was won by Simons with a majority of just 5,399 over Reform in the 2024 general election. Since then, Labour’s polling has plummeted while Reform’s has surged.
Local Election Results
In this month’s local elections, Reform UK swept every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing about half the vote. Labour trailed with just over a quarter. Wes Streeting backed Burnham as Labour’s “best chance” to win, despite Streeting’s own leadership ambitions.
Burnham’s Popularity
Burnham is the UK’s most popular politician according to YouGov, with 35% holding a positive opinion, compared to Starmer’s 19% and Streeting’s 12%. His support is even stronger in the North West, where locals approve of his mayoral record since 2017.
Green Party Threat
The Green Party, which achieved the second-highest vote share in recent local elections and won Gorton and Denton, is also fielding a candidate in Makerfield. This could split the progressive vote, aiding Reform. In Gorton and Denton, the Greens won 41% to Reform’s 29% and Labour’s 25%. However, a Survation poll suggested that had Burnham been Labour’s candidate, Labour would have taken 47%, with the Greens at 25%.
Expert Analysis
Polling expert Sir John Curtice stated Labour would have “less than a 5% chance” in Makerfield “if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham”. He described it as one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests, tougher than Gorton and Denton. While data favours Burnham, a potential backlash from constituents viewing his candidacy as a springboard to the leadership could be a factor.
Financial Costs
The by-election could cost taxpayers up to £226,000. A victory for Burnham would trigger another by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, costing millions—the 2024 mayoral race cost £4.7 million. Simons acknowledged the fight would be “really, really tough” and uncertain, but said taking risks can change the course of events.
