For generations, Labour and Wales felt politically inseparable. Now, voters are signalling that even the deepest loyalties have limits. Labour has ruled Wales for over a century, winning every election and embedding itself not just in politics but in the culture and social fabric. However, the recent Senedd elections have resulted in a dramatic collapse, with Labour reduced to just nine seats after being the governing party throughout the devolved institution's existence. This has been described as an annihilation.
The Perfect Storm
The decline began before the 2024 UK general election, which only papered over the cracks. Wales' First Minister Vaughan Gething resigned after four months amid controversy over a £200,000 campaign donation from a businessman convicted of environmental offences. His successor, Eluned Morgan, inherited a mess with little chance of recovery. The biggest factor was the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's UK Labour government, which refused to support Welsh Labour on key issues like additional funding, devolution of the Crown Estate, and justice and policing. This created a vacuum filled by Plaid Cymru on the left and Reform UK on the right.
Historical Roots of Decline
Labour's ambivalence towards devolution dates back to 1999, and successive First Ministers failed to spend public money tactically on areas like the NHS, education, and transport. When combined with an unpopular UK government, the promised 'partnership in power' became a dysfunctional relationship visible to all. Plaid Cymru's gains may be sticky, as the party is ideologically similar to Labour on policy, though Plaid has downplayed independence in its first term. Labour's campaign mistakes included focusing on 'stop the separatists' rather than voters' real concerns about Reform UK and standing up for Wales.
Path to Recovery
Despite the catastrophic defeat, a way back exists. Two-thirds of Welsh voters supported progressive left-leaning parties, indicating a substantial electoral base. Labour must become a party clearly on the side of working people, committed to redistribution and social progress. A far-reaching review is needed to understand the roots of the collapse, which extend beyond recent elections. Without proper introspection, resurrection remains unlikely.
