Vladimir Putin suggested on Saturday that the war in Ukraine may be "coming to an end," raising questions about why the Russian president might seek an end now given the evolving battlefield dynamics.
1. Russia is losing battlefield momentum
After Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in summer 2023, Moscow had been gradually taking territory. However, Ukraine's recapture of Kupiansk in December surprised Western experts. An agreement limiting Russian use of Starlink in February and Russia's own curtailment of Telegram helped Ukraine reverse territorial losses in Zaporizhzhia by about 100 square miles. In April, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia lost control of 45 square miles of Ukraine, the first net loss since August 2024.
2. Russian casualties may exceed replacements
Ukraine claims to have killed or wounded about 35,000 Russian soldiers monthly in March and April, overwhelmingly from drone strikes. Russian recruitment has dipped to 800-1,000 daily in 2026, or 24,000-30,000 monthly, according to economist Janis Kluge. There is no sign Putin will launch a second mobilisation after the social unrest from the first in September 2022.
3. Ukrainian refinery attacks expose Russia to oil price falls
Russia's oil export earnings rose to $19 billion in March after Trump's attack on Iran, but Ukrainian strikes on terminals at Primorsk and Ust-Luga slashed daily exports from 5.2 million barrels to 3.5 million. A US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to tumble, offsetting the current price gains.
4. Ukraine is becoming a missile and drone superpower
Ukraine has invested heavily in domestic drone and missile technology, demonstrated by deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including three drone attacks on a refinery in Perm, 930 miles from the front line. Cheap interceptors have helped Ukraine shoot down 33,000 drones in March, double the previous month. Ukraine has begun exporting this technology to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
5. Putin may hope to reignite White House interest
Putin hopes to persuade Trump to force Zelenskyy into ceding Donetsk, an offer made at the Alaska summit in August. Despite Putin's recent comments, Russia's maximalist demands remain, with aide Yuri Ushakov stating peace talks cannot start until Ukraine withdraws from all of Donetsk. Trump, distracted by the Iran crisis, may be re-engaged by Putin's fresh language.
