Reform UK is setting its sights on the Senedd elections in 2026, buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory in the US and its own strong performance in the July general election. The party secured 14.3% of the vote and five parliamentary seats, coming second in 98 constituencies, including 13 in Wales.
The proportional voting system for the Senedd is seen as favourable to Reform, as it rewards overall vote share rather than geographic concentration. Luke Tryl of More in Common said many Welsh seats resemble the ‘red wall’ areas where Reform has emerged as the main challenger to Labour.
Labour is divided on how to counter Farage. Some ministers argue that attacking him directly risks making him a martyr, while others insist the party must tackle him head-on. A Welsh Labour MP said Farage should be held accountable for stoking unrest after the Southport stabbing attack.
Polling suggests Reform could win 14 to 17 of the 96 Senedd seats, potentially beating the Conservatives to second place. However, the party faces challenges in professionalising its operation and avoiding extremist candidates, after several were disowned in July.
Luke Tryl warned that breakthroughs have sometimes damaged smaller parties, and Reform would need to develop policies beyond migration to sustain a significant Senedd presence. There is also uncertainty over whether Farage will prioritise Wales or focus on US politics following Trump’s win.
