The Scottish National Party (SNP) is facing an uncertain election outcome as disgruntled voters express disillusionment with the party's performance. During a campaign walkabout in Hamilton, SNP leader John Swinney was confronted by angry residents, including Natasha Kelly, a mother of two asthmatic boys, who criticised the council's failure to address damp in her flat. Kelly, a pro-independence SNP voter, said she was 'losing faith vastly' in the party.
Gavin Boyle, a Glasgow bar owner, was furious about a 438% increase in business rates after his venue's rateable value was raised to £645,000. He said he would not vote for the SNP or any other party, claiming 'they're as bad as each other'. The campaign has been described as 'uninspiring' by polling analyst Mark Diffley, contributing to the most unpredictable Scottish election in over a decade.
Final projections from the Diffley Partnership suggest the SNP will win 56 seats, well short of the 65 needed for a majority. Labour is predicted to win 18 seats, its worst Holyrood performance, while Reform UK is expected to take 19 seats. The Greens are forecast to win a record 16 seats, the Conservatives 11, and the Liberal Democrats nine.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has urged voters to 'reject Reform, beat the SNP, change Scotland and vote Scottish Labour'. Despite a buoyant rally in Glasgow, senior Labour figures privately admit they will not beat the SNP but hope to challenge for first minister. Labour has invested £200,000 in social media advertising in the final days of the campaign to attract wavering voters.
The SNP has shown nervousness, doubling down on its core vote strategy by pledging a vote on independence powers on day one of the new parliament. High-profile supporters like actors Martin Compston and Alan Cummings have been drafted in to rally support. The Scottish Greens are not standing in every constituency, which some observers see as a tactical error that may leave independence supporters without an alternative.
