Donald Trump is in China for a high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, with Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and trade likely topping the agenda. The visit, the first by a US president in nearly a decade, comes amid geopolitical upheaval, a new Middle East conflict, and a sometimes rocky relationship between the world's two major superpowers.
1. Iran War
Trump is eager for China to lean on Tehran to advance peace talks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing has publicly remained on the sidelines while the US struggles against Iran. However, with about half of China's crude oil imports passing through the strait, Xi wants the waterway unblocked. China knows its exports will suffer if a global recession results from an oil supply crisis. Complicating matters, the US recently imposed sanctions on several Chinese firms accused of assisting Iranian oil shipments and supplying satellite imagery for Iranian military operations, claims Beijing denies.
2. Taiwan
Beijing is keen to push the US on Taiwan, with Trump prepared to raise arms sales to the island, which China claims as a breakaway territory. In December, Trump authorised an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest ever, but no shipments have been made. Xi may seek changes in US references to Taiwan, ideally a statement opposing rather than not supporting independence. Former US spokesperson John Kirby cautioned: "They just have to be so extraordinarily precise when you're talking about Taiwan because, quite frankly, the stakes are enormously high."
3. Artificial Intelligence
China and the US are locked in an AI race resembling a technological cold war. In April, the White House accused China of stealing US AI intellectual property on an industrial scale, which Beijing denied. Beijing is frustrated by Washington's reluctance to allow Nvidia to export its most powerful chips to China. Analysts hope Trump and Xi will discuss non-binding AI guidelines, including information sharing on AI misuse and safety, seen as critical amid AI weaponry advances.
4. US-China Trade
Trump has threatened China with tariffs above 140%, but Xi held firm, blocking rare earth mineral exports. Trump eventually backed down, as US weapons arsenals depleted in Iran require critical minerals from China-dominated supply chains. China is expected to announce purchases of Boeing airplanes, American agriculture, and energy. In return, Beijing wants eased curbs on advanced semiconductor exports and reduced investment barriers, hoping to establish a Board of Investment.
5. Fentanyl
Fentanyl is a key agenda item, with the US accusing Chinese businesses of supplying chemical precursors to Mexican cartels. Trump knows pressing China on fentanyl plays well with his base, but lost leverage when China defied tariff threats. In March, the US and China clashed over fentanyl at a UN drugs meeting. China wants removal from the US list of major drug transit countries, due for update in September.
