An energized Donald Trump won't stop boasting about his political victories after Republicans in Texas voted out Senator John Cornyn in favor of embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Trump Celebrates Paxton's Victory
'Texas, this will be FUN!' Trump wrote on social media, congratulating Paxton for his 27-point blowout victory over Cornyn.
But Republican lawmakers in Washington, DC, are privately discouraged - and even furious - about Trump's surprise endorsement of now-victorious Paxton. Sources tell the Daily Mail that Republicans fear they won't be able to raise enough money to help Paxton beat his Democratic rival, Texas State Representative James Talarico.
Fundraising Concerns
Donors aren't fans of Paxton, whom they view as a 'wildcard' on policy. He is also embroiled in controversies, including openly cheating on his wife and living with his mistress Tracy Duhon, with whom he's been photographed, which could turn off God-fearing Texas voters. Neither Paxton nor Duhon has denied or confirmed their relationship.
And it could start an unanticipated domino effect in favor of Democratic candidates in the November midterm elections, they say. Prior to the runoff, Republican Majority Leader John Thune warned that a Paxton victory could start a blue wave of momentum for Democrats nationwide. Even National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott had said losing the seat is a 'strong possibility' with Paxton at the top of the ticket.
GOP Anger Over Trump's Betrayal
And Republicans are furious, viewing Trump's shock endorsement of Paxton as a betrayal that could cost them everything. 'Republicans are extremely pissed off,' one Republican operative told the Daily Mail. 'They view Trump's backing of Paxton as the ultimate betrayal, and it's a multi-million-dollar mistake that could cost them the seat.' The Daily Mail reached out to Paxton for comment.
Another Republican strategist told the Daily Mail that he's more concerned about the overall political and economic environment in November. If gas prices, inflation, mortgage rates, and food costs were still rising and the President was still tangled up in a war in Iran, Republicans could suffer heavy losses. But combined with poor fundraising and a wave of defeats, it could be deadly for the GOP at the polls.
Trump Defends Endorsement
Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that Paxton's victory demonstrated the strength of the Republican electorate, despite the ongoing conflict with Iran and spiking prices. Iranian leaders, he said, thought they were going to 'outwait' the United States, believing he would be forced to end the war ahead of the midterm elections.
'I don't care about the midterms. Look what happened [in Texas]. That was the prelude to the midterms,' Trump admitted. 'People understand, they know that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.'
One former GOP Senate aide noted how Trump's backing of Paxton makes other incumbents uneasy about whether they will secure the President's support. 'Senators are generally pretty comfortable in their position, so when you get ousted, it definitely makes people look around, maybe not feel safe as they were,' the source shared.
Democrats Eye Opportunities
Democrats are also eyeing Republican Senate seats in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska as possible pickups. In North Carolina, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has a comfortable lead in the polls against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. In Maine, Republicans are optimistic that Senator Susan Collins will edge out upstart Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, who has his own uncomfortable record of radical statements.
Former Ohio Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted, who filled Senator JD Vance's seat after he joined President Trump's winning ticket as Vice President. That race could come down to the wire. Republicans view Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff as a vulnerable incumbent, as well as Michigan's open Senate seat vacated by the retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
Financial Implications
The GOP is now scrambling to raise enough funds to get Paxton across the line in addition to funding the slew of other close races. On the House side, Republicans estimate they could win up to 13 additional seats from newly drawn congressional districts. Democrats are looking at gains in the single digits, even after successful redistricting efforts in California and Utah.
With the GOP's current margin-thin majority, Democrats only need to pick up a couple of seats to win power back. And traditionally, the opposite party of the president in power is more successful in the midterm elections. The common theme to victory? Who can fundraise more and get voters to the polls.
In Texas, many speculate that Paxton's race against Talarico will cost more than if Cornyn had squared off with the Democrat. The general election between Paxton and Talarico from now until November could cost up to $100 million, according to some estimates. As a large fundraiser and former chairman of the Republican National Senatorial Committee, Cornyn's ability to raise cash for the GOP will be missed.
'Cornyn was a prolific fundraiser, but had base problems,' another GOP operative disclosed. 'Paxton has a strong connection with the base, but could have trouble raising money in DC.'
Warnings from Ted Cruz
Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who did not endorse in the primary, warned on his podcast that Democrats would be energized by Paxton's victory. He noted that Talarico tries to sell himself as a 'sweet, inoffensive, nice young man' that can draw support from moderate Republicans. 'I want to give a caution: do not take this general election for granted,' he said.
Democrats view Paxton, beset by personal and political scandal in Texas, as a weaker candidate, offering them a better chance of flipping the seat to their favor. Trump, however, did not appear worried, boasting on social media of his 100 percent endorsement record in Republican primaries, with eight of his endorsed Senate candidates winning their primaries.
White House Optimism
The White House signaled optimism about Republican chances during the midterm elections in November. 'President Trump is the unequivocal leader of the Republican party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans' majority in Congress to continue delivering wins for the American people,' White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told the Daily Mail. Wales said the President would continue to 'draw a sharp contrast' between the more 'radical' Democrats in Congress who were out of step with issues that were important to the American people, such as illegal immigration, tax cuts, and combatting crime.
The Republican grassroots activists who boosted Paxton to victory downplayed Democratic chances in Texas. 'I've seen this panic before, especially related to Texas, and it never comes to fruition,' Republican strategist Caroline Wren told the Daily Mail.
Pollster Insights
A Democratic victory in Texas would help them seize a majority in the Senate, but pollsters warned that it was still an uphill battle to win in the Republican state. 'It's hard to deny that Paxton is trickier to elect than Cornyn. But by the end of a blindingly expensive primary, Cornyn came out of it unpopular among Texans and had become toxic to the very base that Republicans need to turn out,' J.L. Partners pollster James Johnson told the Daily Mail.
Cornyn, Johnson noted, lost the primary race weeks ago, even before Trump endorsed Paxton. Although Paxton has personal and political baggage, he was ultimately victorious despite getting outspent $150 million to $15 million by Cornyn, who featured ads attacking his character. Texas Republican voters indicated that they did not care for the personal attacks, sources told the Daily Mail, choosing a 'fighter' over an establishment Republican in Washington, DC.
'In this cycle, turnout is going to make a big difference and those that speak effectively to the MAGA base may sometimes be a better choice than incumbents,' Johnson said. A motivated grassroots base would also turn out in droves, energized by Paxton's victory, Wren said. 'For every person that stays home, there is an extremely motivated MAGA voter that's definitely going to turn out now, because it's Ken Paxton, so those cancel each other out,' Wren said.
Money and Momentum
Wren also dismissed concerns voiced by some dismayed Republican strategists that Paxton would siphon important funds from Republican campaign war chests to win in Texas. 'Money goes both ways, so that means if Republicans have to spend a bunch more money, the Democrats have to spend more money,' she said.
Despite Cornyn's loss, Republican Senate leadership moved quickly to back Paxton. Republican Senate Conference Chair Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas endorsed Paxton on Wednesday morning, and Senate Majority Whip Senator John Barrasso backed him on Tuesday night. Thune finally endorsed Paxton late Wednesday, admitting that voters in Texas had spoken. 'We've got to pivot and go all-in to make sure that we keep Texas red, that he wins, and that we keep a far-left liberal out of the United States Senate,' he said in a Wednesday interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt.
Focus on Democratic Opponents
While some Republicans view Paxton as a morally compromised candidate, they immediately pivoted toward Talarico's radical positions on faith, gender, immigration, and even his statements urging Americans to reduce their meat consumption. 'While Republicans are united behind President Trump's America First agenda, Democrats keep pushing the same tired, radical agenda voters rejected in 2024,' Republican National Committee National Press Secretary Kiersten Pels told the Daily Mail.
While Democrats plan to press on Trump's sinking approval ratings on important issues like the economy and the unpopular war in Iran, Republicans told the Daily Mail they plan to highlight the radical views of Talarico in Texas and Platner of Maine as evidence that Democrats are still out of touch with midterm voters. 'While Democrats like Graham Platner and Jon Ossoff double down on their tax-and-spend, open-borders agenda, Republicans remain focused on lowering costs, securing the border, and winning in November.' Bernadette Breslin, NRSC national press secretary, told the Daily Mail.
Matt Whitlock, a former senior adviser at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Daily Mail that contentious midterm primaries frequently led to some raw feelings from activists and consultants. 'A lot of red on red money was spent but when the primary was over, everyone came together to win,' he said.
