If Keir Starmer is ousted as Labour leader, the party could still win the next general election, according to analysis by economist Larry Elliott. Drawing parallels with John Major's downfall after Black Wednesday in 1992, Elliott argues that once a prime minister is seen as hapless, there is no way back. Starmer's reputation has suffered from a steady drip of bad news, with voters expressing buyer's remorse after 14 years of Conservative rule.
Elliott outlines four conditions for a Labour recovery. First, Starmer must go, as voters feel he is not up to the job. He will remain only until the party agrees on a successor. Second, the government must stop unforced errors, such as the uncertainty created by the 2024 and 2025 budgets, which have deterred business investment. The increase in employers' national insurance contributions has been described as a tax on jobs.
Third, a successor must present a coherent strategy. Elliott notes that Labour's 2024 election platform—focusing on NHS investment, infrastructure, workers' rights, manufacturing, higher taxes on the rich, and improved living standards—was broadly popular. Rachel Reeves's first budget delivered extra NHS cash and changed accounting rules to boost public investment. However, Labour has failed to deliver growth, particularly in living standards, which fell in the second half of 2025.
Finally, the economy must start to grow. Elliott suggests that sluggish growth will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates, and international conditions should calm. While a return to rapid growth is unlikely, things should improve. He concludes that the fragmented state of British politics makes a Labour victory still conceivable, provided these conditions are met.
