Voters across party lines are under the mistaken impression that net migration to the United Kingdom is on the rise, even as official figures show it has plummeted to its lowest level in several years. This disconnect between public perception and statistical reality is a key finding from a new study by the thinktank British Future, released just ahead of the latest government migration data.
Sharp Decline in Net Migration
According to government statistics, net migration fell dramatically from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023 to just 204,000 in the year to June 2025. This represents a 69% drop and marks the lowest annual figure since 2021. The latest figures, due to be published on Thursday morning, are expected to show a further decrease.
Public Perception vs. Reality
British Future's research reveals a significant perception gap. Among those with sceptical views on immigration, 67% believe net migration increased in 2025, compared to 37% of those with more liberal views. Furthermore, six in ten individuals who want immigration reduced also think numbers are still rising. Only 15% of the public expect net migration to be lower in the coming year.
The study also found that people overestimate the proportion of immigration accounted for by asylum seekers, believing it to be 33% when the actual figure is around 9%. Similarly, they underestimate the share of student immigration, thinking it is 24% when it actually constitutes just over half of all immigration.
Political Implications
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented on the broader impact of this misperception: "It's little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain."
Immigration has become an increasingly polarised issue, particularly following the Brexit referendum. The "stop the boats" rhetoric and pledges from across the political spectrum to curb unauthorised Channel crossings have shaped public attitudes. Guardian analysis has shown that Labour and Conservative MPs have spoken with increasing hostility about immigration over the past five years, more so than at almost any other time in the last century.
In response to the drop in net migration, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged the decline but stated: "We are going further because the pace and scale of migration has placed immense pressure on local communities." Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp echoed the sentiment, saying: "We need to go much further." Meanwhile, Reform UK has pledged to achieve "net zero" immigration, and its leader Nigel Farage has falsely claimed the drop is largely due to British emigration rather than a fall in overseas arrivals.
Broader Context
Immigration currently ranks as the third most important issue for the public, behind the cost of living and the NHS. Sophie Stowers, a research manager at More in Common, suggests that the misconception stems from visceral reactions to images of small boat arrivals and asylum hotels, which resonate more strongly than official statistics. "Net migration or legal migration is only part of the story, and ultimately it's not the story most voters are concerned with," she said.
British Future's research, conducted by Number Cruncher Politics, surveyed a national sample of 3,003 adults across Great Britain at the end of March. The report warns that if current trends continue, all parties may face a very different immigration context as they prepare for the 2029 general election. Stowers added that concerns about immigration and small boats are intertwined with wider issues of security and stability, making it difficult for simple discussions about falling net migration to shift public opinion.
