A new report by think-tank British Future has revealed a significant gap between public perception and reality regarding net migration, with Nigel Farage accused of spreading misinformation.
Public Misperception on Migration Trends
The research shows that 49% of people believe net migration—the difference between those moving to the UK and leaving—increased over the past year. In reality, net migration fell sharply from 900,000 in 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, with projections suggesting it could drop below 100,000 by the end of 2026.
Despite these figures, a majority of voters expect migration to rise, highlighting what the report describes as a "massive perception gap" shaping British politics.
Accusations Against Nigel Farage
The report singles out Nigel Farage, accusing him of making false claims to undermine official statistics. It states that Reform UK, the party led by Farage, reacted to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing plummeting net migration by seeking to discredit the figures. Specifically, Farage allegedly claimed that the fall in net migration was largely driven by British emigration, a statement the report labels as false.
According to British Future, the 440,000 annual reduction in net migration was primarily due to a 400,000 drop in new arrivals, not an increase in departures. Despite this, Reform UK remains the most trusted party among immigration-sceptics.
Further Misconceptions on Asylum and Study
The Immigration Attitudes Tracker, based on a survey of over 3,000 adults, also found that most people overestimate the proportion of immigration due to asylum. While the public believes asylum accounts for a third of all immigration, the true figure is just 9%. In contrast, more than half of immigration (52%) is for study, and nearly a third (31%) is for work. However, the public underestimates both these categories.
The report notes a clear correlation between misperception of net migration numbers and negative attitudes towards immigration. Those who feel most negatively about immigration are most likely to mistakenly believe it increased over the last year and will rise again next year.
Calls for Government Action
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, called on politicians to take responsibility for the perception gap. He urged ministers to publish a yearly immigration plan to improve accountability and inform the public. "That kind of accountability could take some of the heat out of our immigration debate – and keep the public better informed, too," he said.
The Mirror has contacted Reform UK for comment.
