A top Taiwanese intelligence official warned on Thursday that China could attempt some “manoeuvring” over the issue of Taiwan during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing next week. Trump is heading to China for a highly anticipated bilateral summit with Xi Jinping, a year after entering a tariff war with Beijing. Experts believe this is Washington’s attempt to smooth over ties with its trade nemesis.
Summit Details and Key Topics
Trump will be in Beijing from 14 to 16 May, where both China and the US are expected to discuss Chinese export controls of rare earths, agricultural products deals for partial tariff relief, the US-Israel war on Iran, and efforts to bring stability in their ties. However, a key topic that will stand out will be China’s impending invasion of its smaller neighbour Taiwan, which the US has strongly opposed.
The US has reaffirmed that its policy on the island has not changed, a Taiwanese intelligence official said. Speaking to reporters at parliament in Taipei, National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said the key focus of Trump’s summit with Xi was likely to be management of their issues, “not fundamental problem-solving.” “As for the Taiwan issue, I believe the Chinese communists may attempt some manoeuvring during the talks,” Tsai said. “However, on this point, the United States has continuously reaffirmed through both public and private channels that its Taiwan policy has not changed,” he added.
Taipei’s Concerns and US Policy
Taipei will be keenly watching for any signs from the US delegation of softening or reframing its longstanding defence policy on Taiwan in return for economic concessions or deals from China. China views Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out reunification by force, if necessary. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims and maintains that only the island’s people can decide its future.
The Pentagon has previously maintained that the Xi administration is on track to invade the island across the Strait by 2027, as also stated by the Chinese president. However, in a rare U-turn in March this year, US intelligence said China did not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, backpedalling on a previous intelligence assessment ahead of Trump’s planned summit.
The US does not officially recognise Taiwan due to its One China policy but is obligated to assist Taipei to defend itself under US federal law, which has impacted its relations with Beijing. Earlier this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Taiwan is likely to be a topic of conversation between Trump and Xi, but both countries understand it is in neither of their interests to see any “destabilising events” occur with regards to Taiwan. China has indicated the contrary.
Liang Wen-chieh, spokesperson for Taiwan’s China-policy-making Mainland Affairs Council, said on Thursday that China “very much wants” to discuss Taiwan at the summit, even if the US does not really want to. “It appears that the Taiwan issue will come up, but the hope is that it will not go beyond manageable bounds and will not have an adverse impact on Taiwan,” he added.
