US officials have begun actively planning for the likelihood that President Donald Trump will announce next month that the United States is withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, according to sources familiar with the matter. The planning, though at an early stage, has taken on greater urgency as the mid-May deadline approaches, when Trump has said he will walk away unless his concerns are addressed.
National security officials are exploring various 'day after' scenarios, including how to sell a pullout as the correct strategy, how aggressively to reimpose US sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the agreement, and how to deal with Iranian and European fallout from such a step. The arrival of two new Trump aides strongly opposed to the deal—Mike Pompeo, nominated for secretary of state, and John Bolton, incoming national security adviser—has further signalled that the 2015 landmark agreement may soon be history.
Iran has said that US withdrawal and reimposed sanctions would destroy the agreement and has threatened a range of responses, including immediately restarting nuclear activities currently barred under the deal. US sanctions that were lifted in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear program fall into several baskets, including some that can be restored by executive order and some that would require congressional action.
One option being considered by the Treasury Department, which enforces sanctions, would be to immediately snap back sanctions that do not need action from Congress but delay their enforcement by four to six months, according to people familiar with the matter. This would give companies and governments time to adjust.
Another complicating factor is Trump's stated desire to withdraw US personnel and resources from Syria, which many Iran hawks believe will cede the country to Tehran. Leaving Syria to keep his campaign promise of disentangling the US military from the Middle East may force Trump's hand on the nuclear deal, according to hawks who have expressed dismay at the president's desire to pull back.
