Net migration to the United Kingdom has declined to its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, yet approximately half of the British public remains under the impression that it is still increasing. This disconnect between official statistics and public perception has prompted think tank British Future to urge politicians to take greater responsibility for the narrative surrounding immigration.
Sharp Decline in Net Migration
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration—the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country—stood at an estimated 204,000 in the 12 months to June 2025. This represents a dramatic 69% decrease from 649,000 in the previous year and marks the lowest annual figure since 2021. The decline has been primarily driven by a significant reduction in individuals arriving for work or study purposes.
Public Perception vs. Reality
New research conducted by British Future reveals a stark contrast between public belief and actual trends. In a weighted survey of approximately 3,000 adults, 49% of respondents thought net migration had increased in the year leading up to May 2025. Only 16% correctly identified the decline. Furthermore, 51% of those surveyed anticipated that migration would rise again the following year.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented: “A massive perception gap is shaping not just the immigration debate but British politics more broadly. Politicians need to take responsibility for this. It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.”
Misconceptions About Asylum and Work Migration
The research also found that the public significantly overestimates the proportion of immigration attributed to asylum seekers. Britons estimated that asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration, whereas the true figure is around 9%, according to a House of Commons briefing on asylum statistics. Conversely, migration for work and study is underestimated.
Political Implications
The updated statistics, expected to be published on Thursday, are anticipated to show net migration falling even further, potentially below 200,000. This has led to calls from some Labour MPs to reconsider Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms, which include stricter settlement rules for foreign nationals. Labour MPs hope to use the lower figures to pressure the Home Office into reversing certain policies that make it harder for migrants to remain in the UK.
Dr Ben Brindle of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford noted: “If you look at what's happening right at the moment, then net migration is coming down and the public aren't often aware of that. But if you take a slightly broader context, net migration has been high. Maybe we can be a bit charitable to the public for not being across the technical points of migration.”
Drivers of the Decline
The sharp fall in net migration follows a period of high numbers after the pandemic, peaking at 924,000 in the year to June 2023. The subsequent decline is attributed to a drop in non-EU arrivals for study and work, as well as an increase in emigration. Policy changes implemented under the Conservative government and maintained by Labour—such as restrictions on care workers and overseas students bringing family members, and higher salary requirements for visas—have contributed to the trend.
Dr Brindle added: “The broader [downward] trend has been because the Conservatives introduced restrictions, that Labour have maintained. Levels of immigration have come down and levels of emigration have gone up as well.” He cautioned that low numbers could rise again if emigration slows.
Emotional Reactions vs. Facts
Bobby Duffy, director of the policy institute at King’s College London, which jointly published the research, explained: “We know misconceptions are often more a reflection of an emotional reaction than a calm consideration of the facts, particularly on highly-charged issues like immigration. The public are partly signalling that they’re still concerned about immigration. But that doesn’t mean that facts don’t matter. Currently there is very little talk about how much immigration has decreased, and instead the public only really see a political and media focus on the risks and how it needs stricter control.”
Government Response
A Home Office spokesperson stated: “Net migration under this government is already down by 70% but there is still progress to be made. This government has a proud history of welcoming those who contribute to this country, but we must restore order and control at our borders. The home secretary has set out her plans for a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and integration and ends Britain’s reliance on cheap overseas workers.”
