The UK population is projected to grow to 73.7 million by mid-2036, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This represents an increase of approximately 6.6 million, or 9.9%, from the estimated 67 million in mid-2021. The 70 million mark is now expected to be reached by mid-2026, a decade earlier than previously projected.
Long-term international net migration is projected to account for 6.1 million of the increase, with the remainder coming from a higher number of births than deaths. The ONS assumes net migration will fall from a peak of about 670,000 in the year to June 2023, before settling at 315,000 from 2028 onwards.
Over the 15 years from mid-2021 to mid-2036, it is projected that 10.8 million people will be born, 10.3 million will die, 13.7 million will move long-term to the UK, and 7.6 million will emigrate. The ONS stressed that these are projections based on current trends, not forecasts, and actual figures may vary due to policy changes and unknown migrant behaviour.
The population aged 85 and over is projected to grow from 1.6 million (2.5% of the total) to 2.6 million (3.5%) by 2036. People aged 75 and over could account for one in ten of the population by 2029, and those of pension age could account for one in five by 2037.
The total projected increase over the next 25 years (14.2%) is proportionately less than the growth over the past 25 years (15.3%), indicating a slowing but still significant rise.
