In 2002, conservation photographer Kenneth Adelman launched the California Coastal Record Project online, a collection of 118,000 photographs documenting coastal erosion along the western United States. Unfortunately, one of the images on the site captured the clifftop home of Oscar-winning actress and singer Barbra Streisand. Streisand sued for $50 million, citing loss of privacy, and quickly regretted it. The case was dismissed, and Adelman was awarded more than $100,000 in costs. But worse, the ensuing media storm drove an army of previously oblivious star-watchers to the obscure site. Traffic to Adelman's project soared from a handful of views to half a million per month, birthing the phenomenon known as the 'Streisand Effect.' Until this week, when it was reborn as 'The Farage Effect.'
Over the weekend, an opinion poll showed Andy Burnham holding a small lead in the Makerfield by-election, with Reform UK three points behind. A distant third, on seven percent, was Restore, Rupert Lowe's breakaway insurgents. Nigel Farage and his team could have embraced the poll, declaring there was all to play for, or simply shrugged and insisted their own canvassing showed deeper support. Instead, they completely lost their minds. Within minutes, Reform's official X feed broadcast to its 600,000 followers: 'Vote Restore, Get Burnham.' Farage hurriedly took to the Daily Telegraph to lambast Twitter owner Elon Musk, a Restore supporter, for backing the maverick party. 'Elon Musk has decided he will try to split the Right of British politics as best he can. This is supporting a party that's one man with a social media account. Quite what he's trying to achieve, I have no idea,' he raged.
The order then went out through the wider Reform ranks to join the attack. Deputy leader Richard Tice began circulating an article accusing Restore of being 'the enemy of populism' and claiming Rupert Lowe made him 'sick.' Matthew Goodwin, GB News broadcaster and the party's failed candidate in Gorton and Denton, stormed: 'What do Andy Burnham and Rupert Lowe have in common? They are both in this for their egos, not the country.' MP Sarah Pochin sneered: 'Only Reform can beat Labour in Makerfield. If you go Lowe you get Labour.'
This crazed response is having a series of major impacts on the Makerfield by-election and British politics more generally, none of which are what Reform intended or desired. First, Reform has amply communicated to voters, the media, and the nation how much Rupert Lowe and his ragtag rebels have taken up residence in their increasingly addled heads. Yesterday, Ms. Pochin, dispatched by Reform HQ to take another swing at Restore, told Talk TV: 'And yes, it is a two-horse race between Restore – I'm sorry! Oh God!' she stumbled. 'Between Reform and, oh God... I'll be sacked for saying that! Reform and Labour, that's of no doubt.' But within Reform, there are major doubts, and they're running deep. When I was in Makerfield last week, I was surprised at the presence the tiny splinter party was generating on the ground. In the wake of the first poll, I spoke to sources from different parties who claimed that based on recent canvass returns, they believe it significantly underestimated Restore's actual support. Then yesterday, I spoke to three other sources who independently told me they believed that on the trends they were seeing, there was a possibility Restore could actually beat Reform in the seat.
This reported trending towards Restore is certainly how the bookies see things. At the time of writing, the odds on a Labour victory had narrowed to 1-3 on. Meanwhile, the odds on Reform had continued to drift. But most significantly, the odds on Restore had narrowed to only 8-1, with 43 percent of recent bets placed on Lowe's party. As if to buttress these figures, on Tuesday night, the independent media platform GB Politics released a prediction showing Reform on 33 percent and Restore as high as 17 percent, with Labour winning on 40 percent. The more Reform attacks Restore, the more they boost their profile.
This is not necessarily a reflection of actual moves of support in the constituency but rather the deranged strategy being employed by Reform. The more they attack Lowe and Restore, the more they boost their profile, attracting more interest, more bets, shrinking Restore's odds, and feeding the narrative of Restore building momentum. It will also have two other direct impacts. First, it will increase the interest shown in Restore by the national media. A week ago, the contest in Makerfield was framed as a simple one between Labour and Reform. Now, an entire Reform/Restore sub-plot has been unleashed. 'Could Restore actually be the difference in this by-election?' journalists are breathlessly asking, because every senior figure in Reform is screaming: 'Restore are going to cost us this damn by-election!'
The other practical impact relates to opinion polls. At the moment, most national pollsters don't bother to 'prompt' for Restore—they don't specifically name them when asking respondents which party they may support. But now, thanks to Reform's panic and the media storm, more pollsters are preparing to start doing just that, which will further boost Restore's poll rating nationally and feed the perception that Rupert Lowe is successfully building momentum at Nigel Farage's expense.
What is even more staggering about Reform's reaction—or ludicrous over-reaction—is that Restore is literally running the playbook Farage and Reform wrote, one now used by every populist party in the West: take a small amount of public support, leverage it by adopting a position that creates a furious backlash, take the publicity generated to boost your profile and turn on the oxygen tap of national publicity, and repeat. Yet for some reason, Nigel Farage simply cannot recognise it. He could not be doing a better impression of Barbra Streisand if he strode down Makerfield high street in high heels and a sequin dress while belting out 'The Way We Were.' Reform's war with Restore is one they cannot possibly win. The only question is whether it will take them till June 18 to finally realise it.
