A thinktank has argued that the most effective strategy for reducing the welfare bill is to address the underlying causes of unemployment, rather than cutting benefits. Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) indicates that achieving the government's objective of having 80% of the working-age population in employment would reduce the cost of universal credit by £10bn, equivalent to one-eighth of the current expenditure.
Challenging the Political Narrative
The JRF's forthcoming report pushes back against what it describes as the "dominant political narrative" that social security spending is "spiralling." It highlights that official projections show spending on non-pensioner benefits will remain stable at around 5% of GDP for the remainder of the parliament. Sam Tims, JRF's lead analyst, warned against enlarging gaps in the safety net, stating that such measures do not eliminate the reasons people need support but instead leave low-income families hungry. He urged the government to focus on root causes of economic insecurity, such as creating decent jobs, building affordable homes, and improving health.
Voter Support for Long-Term Solutions
A survey of over 4,000 voters conducted by the pollster More in Common alongside the JRF research found that 59% supported reducing the welfare bill over the long term by tackling underlying causes. This contrasted with 20% who favoured cutting costs quickly by restricting benefit eligibility, and 8% who preferred reducing claimant payments. Among those who voted Labour, Liberal Democrat, or Green in the 2024 general election, support for the long-term approach rose to 70%.
Policy Recommendations
The report calls for prioritising measures such as increased support for public health, construction of more social housing, and regeneration of struggling regional economies. It notes that health-related universal credit claims have risen more since the Covid pandemic in areas with fewer local job opportunities, particularly former industrial or coastal regions.
Context: Youth Unemployment and Benefits Reform
The research coincides with the publication of an interim report by Alan Milburn, former cabinet minister and ex-chair of the Social Mobility Commission, focusing on tackling young people not in education, employment, or training (Neet). Almost a million young people aged 16 to 24 are Neets. Milburn has highlighted that far more is spent on benefits for this group than on helping them into work. His final report, expected later this year, is anticipated to recommend benefits reforms, though any call for cuts could prove controversial. Labour's plan to reduce personal independence payments for disabled people was drastically scaled back last year after a backbench revolt.
Government Response
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson stated: "Reforming welfare is about getting people who can into work. Our investment in subsidised work, jobs grants, apprenticeships and training will support half a million young people. Putting the Right to Try into law is allowing people on sickness and disability benefits to try work without the immediate fear of losing their benefits, while our £3.5bn investment in employment support for sick and disabled people is giving them the genuine help they need to move into work and out of poverty."
