The first Makerfield by-election poll has placed Andy Burnham in the lead ahead of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by a razor-thin margin of just three points. The Mayor of Greater Manchester is seeking to prove he can defeat Nigel Farage’s party in this pivotal contest, which could pave his way to Downing Street if he succeeds in his bid to return to Westminster.
Mr Burnham told voters that backing him would be their chance to “change Labour” as he officially launched his highly anticipated campaign on Friday. However, the race remains challenging against Reform UK, which comfortably won every ward in the constituency during this month’s local elections.
The Survation poll, based on 369 respondents likely to vote, places Mr Burnham narrowly ahead with 43 points, while Reform UK’s Mr Kenyon trails at 40 points. Restore Britain, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe as a right-wing challenger, has fractured the right-wing vote, securing seven points. The Liberal Democrats stand at four percent, and the Green candidate, who withdrew after the survey, was at three percent. The Conservatives polled at just two percent.
Mr Farage responded by backing his candidate, calling the contest a “two horse race” between Labour and Reform. The constituency, once a Labour stronghold, has shifted towards Reform UK in recent elections. Josh Simons, the Labour MP who stepped down for Mr Burnham, won in 2024 by only 5,399 votes, while Reform swept every ward in the local elections this month.
Speaking at a community sports club, Mr Burnham insisted his return to Parliament would not be “business as usual,” but rather a force to make Westminster “focus on the places it usually looks past.” Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, has been accused of sharing transphobic slurs, Covid misinformation, and objectifying women in deleted social media posts. He was also reported to be Facebook friends with Gary Raikes, the neo-fascist founder of the New British Union, though The Independent understands the page was political rather than personal.
