Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government has been handed a severe warning by voters, with an exclusive new poll showing Nigel Farage's Reform UK surging into a commanding lead.
Polling Numbers Deliver a Political Earthquake
The exclusive research by Deltapoll, conducted for GB News, places Reform UK on 30% of the vote. This puts them significantly ahead of the two main traditional parties. The poll shows Labour languishing on just 20%, barely ahead of the Conservatives who are on 19%.
This represents the most dramatic challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's authority since he entered Downing Street last year. Despite touting a series of policy achievements, the Prime Minister has failed to translate this into sustained public support in the polls.
Starmer's Personal Ratings and the Road to 2026
The net approval scores make for particularly bleak reading in Number 10. Sir Keir Starmer has a net score of -46, with seven out of ten respondents believing he is doing a bad job. Damningly, this includes 54% of those who voted Labour at the last general election.
The Prime Minister told ministers this week that 2026 would be the year Britain turned "renewal into reality," with major policies like an increase in neighbourhood policing, lifting the two-child benefit cap, a rail fares freeze, and planned cuts to energy bills coming into force.
These efforts will be tested at the ballot box in May's crucial local elections, which include the Holyrood election in Scotland and the Senedd election in Wales.
Reform's Lead Masks a Trust Deficit
Despite their commanding poll lead, the data reveals that the public retains deep scepticism about Reform UK's competence on key issues. On defence, 42% distrust the party—a statistic underscored by the recent sentencing of the party's ex-leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, to ten-and-a-half years in prison for taking bribes to spread pro-Russia propaganda.
On the critical issues of the cost of living and the economy, half of the public (50%) do not trust Mr Farage and his party, compared to 32% who do. The party's hardline immigration policy, which includes mass deportation plans, is also viewed with suspicion, distrusted by 46% on the issue.
Nigel Farage's personal approval rating sits at -4, while Conservative figure Kemi Badenoch is on -9, with 19% of people unsure of her performance.
Joe Twyman, Co-founder and Director of Deltapoll, offered a sobering analysis: "It is clear that 2025 has been a difficult year for the Labour government generally, and the Prime Minister Keir Starmer specifically." He noted that while there are potentially three and a half years until the next general election, "every day that passes and public opinion does not improve, the task facing the government becomes more difficult."
The poll signals a volatile and unpredictable political landscape as the country heads into the new year, with all major party leaders facing significant challenges to win over a sceptical electorate.
