The upcoming local elections on 7 May could result in the worst-ever performance for the governing Labour Party, with pollsters warning of a potential loss of over 1,000 seats. More than 5,000 council seats across England are up for grabs, and the outcome could prove decisive for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
Projected losses and gains
Professor Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford forecasts that Labour will lose 1,900 councillors, a 74 per cent drop in the seats it is defending. This would mark the worst local election performance for any prime minister in history. The Conservatives are also expected to suffer, with a net loss of 1,010 councillors. Meanwhile, Reform UK could gain 2,260 councillors, tripling its local representation, while the Greens could gain 450 and the Liberal Democrats 200.
Reform UK and Greens on the rise
Nigel Farage's Reform UK is predicted to be the biggest winner, building on last year's gains of 677 council seats. The Green Party, buoyed by Hannah Spencer's election to parliament in February, is also projected to see significant gains. Political scientist John Curtice described the elections as a "remarkable calamity" for both Labour and the Conservatives. He noted that the two-party system is under strain as voters turn to smaller parties.
Reform is contesting 99.9 per cent of wards, and the Greens over 90 per cent, indicating a strong challenge to the established parties. In London, where all 32 boroughs are holding elections, the Greens could top the poll in four councils, including Lewisham and Lambeth, while Reform could lead in three. Labour sources have warned of a "bloodbath" in Islington, and Green sources expect to take Hackney.
Leadership pressure on Starmer
The prime minister's popularity has been declining for over a year, and the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, despite failing his vetting process, has further eroded support. Calls for Sir Keir to resign are growing, and a poor election result could trigger a leadership challenge. Andy Burnham, the Manchester mayor and UK's most popular politician, is seen as a potential successor, though he was blocked from standing in Gorton and Denton.
Key battlegrounds outside London
In the North, Midlands, and South, traditionally Labour-voting cities like Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, and Wolverhampton are holding elections. While Labour is likely to retain control, Reform and the Greens are expected to make significant inroads. Areas such as Wakefield, Sunderland, and Thurrock could see power switch from Labour to Reform. The Greens have strong prospects in Sheffield and are focusing campaigning efforts in Newcastle.
Professor Curtice added: "The Labour vote is going first of all to the Greens; that's the principal destination now of 2024 Labour voters who defect. Then there's the Liberal Democrats and Reform. Virtually no one is going to the Tories."
