A recent poll has suggested that a Labour government led by Andy Burnham could defeat Nigel Farage's Reform UK in a general election. The survey, conducted by More in Common, has reignited calls to 'unite the Right' to prevent the Greater Manchester Mayor's return to Westminster and a potential left-wing coalition.
The poll indicates that Labour would receive an eight-point boost if Mr. Burnham succeeds in the Makerfield by-election next month and challenges Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership. According to the findings, Labour would secure 30% of the vote under Mr. Burnham, compared to Reform's 27%, if an election were held tomorrow. The Conservatives would trail at 20%, the Liberal Democrats at 11%, and the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, at 7%.
These results are likely to encourage supporters of the left-wing mayor but send shockwaves through both the Tories and Reform, as they suggest a split right-wing vote could allow Labour to retain power. The findings have also renewed calls for a unified Right to prevent a 'rainbow coalition' of Labour, Greens, and Liberal Democrats. Mr. Polanski has previously stated that he could work with Mr. Burnham to stop Reform.
Several Conservative MPs have already advocated for a pact with Mr. Farage's party in the Makerfield by-election to avoid splitting the right-wing vote and providing Mr. Burnham with a clear path to victory. Former business secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg commented that the poll underscores the urgent need for a unified Right, warning that failing to reach a deal with Reform would give Labour a significant, albeit possibly temporary, boost. He described Mr. Burnham as a 'socialist weathervane' who would be economically worse than Rachel Reeves.
Despite these calls, both parties have resisted a pact thus far. Reform has announced local plumber Robert Kenyon as their Makerfield candidate, while the Greens are expected to select theirs soon. The Conservatives have chosen Michael Winstanley, a former local councillor, as their candidate. Mr. Winstanley, who grew up above his parents' corner shop in the area, previously stood for the Tories in the 1997 general election, finishing second with 6,942 votes.
The survey of 2,599 Britons found that as Labour leader, Mr. Burnham would win back a third of voters who have abandoned the party since the 2024 general election. Nearly half of defectors to the Greens or Liberal Democrats would return to Labour, along with a fifth of those who moved to Reform or the Conservatives.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, described this as one of the most high-stakes by-elections in history, with the future trajectory of the Labour Party and British politics potentially hinging on the outcome. He noted that while Mr. Burnham's appeal lies in championing the north and opposing Westminster, sustaining that outsider image from within the House of Commons could prove challenging, especially in an era of anti-politics sentiment.
Mr. Burnham has been confirmed as Labour's candidate for the Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, after his ally resigned to open a path to the Commons. To mount a leadership challenge, Mr. Burnham must first win the seat. Labour won Makerfield in the 2024 election with a majority of 5,399 over Reform, while the Conservatives came third with 4,379 votes, meaning the majority would be virtually eliminated if the Tories stood aside.
