The Premier League title race should be done. All logic suggests it is already over. Arsenal hold a two-point lead over Manchester City, meaning two victories in their remaining two matches would secure the championship. Those fixtures are tonight against already-relegated Burnley and on Sunday against Crystal Palace, who will be preparing for the Europa Conference League final three days later. It is difficult to imagine a more favorable pair of games for Mikel Arteta's side at this stage of the season.
Manchester City's Tougher Path
City's remaining matches appear more challenging. On Tuesday, they travel to Bournemouth, who are still fighting for Champions League qualification—either by finishing fifth above Liverpool or taking sixth and hoping Aston Villa win the Europa League while finishing fifth. (Under UEFA regulations, if Villa finish fourth and win the Europa League, no sixth Champions League spot would be available for Premier League clubs.) City conclude their campaign at home against Aston Villa, who will have just returned from Istanbul after the Europa League final.
Psychological Factors and History
Various psychological theories are applied to end-of-season games. Do teams with little to play for exert the same effort? Or do they play with greater freedom? Crystal Palace manager Oliver Glasner, whose side lost 3-0 to City last week, stated clearly that his primary duty is to act in his club's best interest; facilitating a title race is not his responsibility. Similarly, Aston Villa's Unai Emery rested players earlier this month against Tottenham before his team's Europa League semi-final second leg. Spurs won that match, climbing above West Ham in the relegation battle as a result. This is the right, even the privilege, of clubs that have achieved their main objectives.
This is a quirk of the calendar and inevitable in any league system—which is why random fixture generation within certain parameters, mainly concerning safety and police demands, is essential. The Premier League was correct to stick to its protocols on rearranging games in this crowded climax despite City's frustration, and rearranging fixtures to give sides free weekends before big European games, as the French league did for Paris Saint-Germain, undermines competition integrity.
However, if Glasner rests players before Palace's game in Leipzig against Rayo Vallecano, perhaps the fresher reserves, desperate to claim a spot in the final, will overperform. Perhaps Villa, elevated by European glory or inspired by defeat, will reach new heights.
Could Burnley upset Arsenal? It is unlikely. They have not won in 11 games and are without a league win at home since October, but they played well enough last weekend in drawing with Villa. With relegation confirmed, there could be a sense of release. Fans will have stopped worrying; all they have left is the thought of enjoying a raucous farewell to the Premier League by impacting the title race unexpectedly. That is all City can now hope for, and their goal difference is one better than Arsenal's, meaning that if Arsenal draw one of their remaining games, City would likely win the title by winning both their fixtures.
Historical Precedents
There is a history of teams with nothing to play for finding motivation in specific games, whether through professional pride or because football sometimes works that way. In 1994-95, Blackburn won the league because Manchester United could only draw at West Ham, who had nothing to play for. Blackburn themselves lost at Liverpool, who were playing only for UEFA Cup qualification and whose fans clearly wanted Blackburn, managed by their former hero Kenny Dalglish, to pip their great rivals to the title. In 1971-72, Derby won the league after Leeds lost at Wolves, who had nothing riding on it, and Liverpool drew at Arsenal, who were marooned in upper midtable with no targets left.
Arsenal's Mentality Under Pressure
Perhaps the biggest single factor this season is Arsenal's mentality and the pressure any side challenging for the title must feel, especially after a 22-year wait. Arsenal have seemed more robust in the weeks since the wobble that saw them win only one of six games, culminating in defeat at City, but the real test might come tonight if it is still 0-0 after an hour against Burnley. They certainly did not play with any great fluency or conviction in their 1-0 win at West Ham last week.
That is the hope to which City must cling, but the reality is that this title now is Arsenal's to lose. However, the title race can do strange things to teams.
