Voters in the southern Spanish region of Andalucía will cast their ballots in an election this weekend that is likely to deliver an absolute majority to the conservative People's Party (PP) and inflict another debilitating defeat on Pedro Sánchez's embattled Socialists in what was previously one of their proudest strongholds.
Election as a Barometer of National Sentiment
Sunday's election in Spain's most populous region – the last major poll before next year's general election – will serve as a gauge of wider electoral opinion and could also reveal whether the popularity of the far-right Vox party is beginning to plateau. The PP, which has governed the former Socialist bastion for the past seven years, is seeking to frame the vote as a referendum on Prime Minister Sánchez, whose inner circle, party, and administration are facing an array of corruption allegations.
Polling Projections
According to polls, the incumbent PP regional president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is on course to nearly replicate his 2022 result, when the conservatives won 58 of the 109 seats in the regional parliament. Meanwhile, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which ruled Andalucía from 1982 to 2019, looks set for its worst-ever outcome, dropping from 30 seats to 28. Vox, which entered mainstream Spanish politics in the 2018 Andalucían regional election, is forecast to gain one or two seats, adding to the 14 it won four years ago.
Moreno's Strategy and Vox's Influence
Moreno is hoping another absolute majority will allow him to govern without relying on Vox, which has been pushing the PP further to the right in regional coalitions by insisting Spaniards receive priority over foreign-born residents for housing and public services. The regional president appears so confident of his majority that he has dismissed Vox's so-called 'national priority' policy as 'an empty slogan.' Both Moreno and the PP's national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, are keen to use Sunday's vote to advance the party across the country by capitalising on the scandals engulfing the national government.
Moreno has referred to his PSOE opponent, former national minister and deputy prime minister María Jesús Montero, as 'the lady from the past' and has spoken of the need to 'bury bad politics and leave the past in the past to build the future.' Feijóo has been blunter, saying Andalucían voters need to 'choose between the conspiracy that Sánchez led and Montero watched over, and [Moreno's] crack team.'
Controversies and Criticisms
Recent events have put the Socialists under even greater pressure. Montero was fiercely criticised earlier this week for referring to the deaths of two Guardia Civil officers who lost their lives while pursuing drug-traffickers off the Andalucían coast as a 'workplace accident.' She later corrected herself, stating the deaths had occurred 'in the line of duty.' Moreno has also faced criticism. With 42.2% of Andalucían voters identifying healthcare as the region's biggest problem, his handling of a cancer-screening scandal has resurfaced during the campaign.
Towards the end of last year, the regional government admitted that more than 2,300 women had not been informed of their inconclusive mammogram results, meaning follow-up tests and treatments were missed. The delay in diagnosis triggered widespread anger and protests, culminating in the resignation of the regional health minister. Moreno insisted this week that no one had died as a result of the administrative failure – a claim challenged by campaigners. Ángela Claverol, president of the breast cancer support association Amama Sevilla, said at least six women had died because of the failure to communicate screening results.
Healthcare and Housing Concerns
Claverol said the cancer scandal was indicative of a wider crisis in Andalucían health services, which she and many others blame on Moreno's privatisation of the public health system. Under Spain's decentralised system, the self-governing regions are responsible for healthcare. 'It's awful; there are delays of up to three months for cancer surgery,' she said. 'There are delays for CT scans, MRIs, appointments with oncologists, radiotherapy, etc. The delays are horrendous for oncology, but at the normal level for ordinary people, if I request an appointment with the GP at my health centre, they won't give me one for 21 days.' Claverol said the public healthcare system had collapsed because of the regional government's growing use of private providers. 'Instead of reinvesting that money in the public sector, in hiring people, in hiring doctors, in hiring specialists, in hiring administrative staff, what they've done is siphon it off to the private sector,' she added.
Moreno, however, says his government has modernised and upgraded hospitals and equipment and increased capacity 'so that more patients can be seen and waiting times can be reduced so that we can move towards a closer, more agile and decisive health system.' Housing is another significant concern for voters in Andalucía, as elsewhere in Spain. As cities such as Seville, Málaga, and Córdoba suffer the effects of overtourism – including soaring rents and a shortage of places to live – local groups are urging the regional government to focus on residents rather than tourists.
Juan Carlos Benítez, a member of Albayzín Habitable, a residents' association formed two years ago in response to dramatic changes in the picturesque Albaicín neighbourhood of Granada, said the Moreno government appeared to have opted for 'a strategy of quantitative tourism over qualitative tourism.' Benítez said Granada was the latest Andalucían city to fall victim to short-term thinking that favoured rapid economic growth through tourism over sustainable development. He said recent months had been 'catastrophic' for the neighbourhood, with a local health centre closing and many important local buildings being sold off for redevelopment. 'It'll become a Disneyland-type centre where no real people live and which only generates money for restaurant and shop owners, but doesn't really benefit society as a whole,' Benítez added.
National Implications
Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid's Carlos III University, said the results of Sunday's election would be felt far beyond Andalucía as Spain gears up for the general election. Polls suggest that the PP will once again finish first next year, but will need Vox's support to govern. 'If Moreno Bonilla maintains his absolute majority and Vox fails to gain influence in forming a government, that will confirm the notion that Vox is now somewhat stagnant and the PP is gaining more ground,' said Simón. He said that despite performing relatively well in recent regional elections in Aragón, Extremadura, and Castilla y León, there was a feeling that Vox was stalling amid internal bickering and that its chances of taking a coveted 20% of the vote might be fading. 'It's a party that's well anchored around 13-14%,' added Simón. 'That means that nationally it's around 17%. That's a very good result. But since they already had the idea of being at 20%, that's backfired on them.' However, he added that any scandals involving PP-led regions – such as the conservatives' botched handling of the deadly floods in Valencia in 2024 – could yet reverse Vox's fortunes.
Simón also said the Socialists would be bracing for a 'terrible' result on Sunday. 'The latest poll I've been given shows 27 seats, so three fewer,' he said. 'We're talking about a gap of more than 20 points between the first and second party – it's just awful.'
