Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is considered one of the leading candidates to succeed Sir Keir Starmer should the Prime Minister resign. Burnham has previously signalled his willingness to challenge the current Labour leader. At last year's Labour Party conference, he called for a “debate on our direction,” and in November, he did not rule out a leadership bid, telling BBC Breakfast: “I don’t know what the future will hold.”
However, as a mayor without a seat in Parliament, Burnham's path to the premiership is fraught with obstacles. The 2024 mayoral election cost the Greater Manchester Combined Authority over £4.7 million, and any further election would incur additional taxpayer expense. Here is a step-by-step look at what Burnham would need to achieve to become the UK's next prime minister.
Step 1: Secure a Vacant Parliamentary Seat
The first requirement is a vacant parliamentary seat, which is not easy to find. In November last year, Clive Lewis, the Labour MP for Norwich South, indicated he would step down for Burnham. Lewis told BBC’s Politics Live: “If I’m going to sit here and say country before party, party before personal ambition, then yes, I have to say yes, don’t I?” However, he later told the Press Association that he would not stand down because Burnham does not want a Norfolk seat.
Another potential supporter, Paula Barker, Labour MP for Liverpool, told BBC Breakfast on Monday that she would not stand down for Burnham. Marie Rimmer, Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, dismissed suggestions she had spoken to Burnham about giving up her seat as “absolute nonsense.” In a post on X, she said: “I have a great deal of respect for Andy, he has done some incredible work in Manchester, but I am not planning to stand down for him or for anybody else.”
Two by-elections are upcoming in Scotland after SNP MPs Stephen Flynn (Aberdeen South) and Stephen Gethins (Arbroath and Broughty Ferry) were elected to Holyrood. However, Burnham is unlikely to stand in these Scottish seats.
Step 2: Gain Approval from Labour's National Executive Committee
Even if a seat becomes vacant, Burnham would need approval from Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC), which selects the party's candidates. In January this year, the NEC blocked Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-election. A 10-strong group, including the Prime Minister, voted to deny him permission to stand. Sir Keir justified the move by arguing that “an election for the Mayor of Manchester when it’s not necessary would divert our resources away from the elections that we must have.”
The Prime Minister faced criticism for this decision, especially after Green Party MP Hannah Spencer won the seat. Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, the only NEC member to vote in favour of allowing Burnham to stand, said he “probably would have” held the seat.
Step 3: Win the By-Election and Become an MP
With NEC approval and a vacant seat, Burnham would need to win the by-election to enter Parliament. This step is crucial, as only MPs can stand for the Labour leadership.
Step 4: Meet the Nomination Threshold for the Leadership Ballot
According to Labour Party rules, a leadership candidate must be an MP and receive nominations from 20% of Labour MPs in Parliament. Additionally, they need nominations from 5% of constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) or at least three party affiliates, with at least two being trade unions.
Step 5: Win the Leadership Competition
Finally, Burnham would need to win the leadership contest among Labour members and affiliates to become party leader and subsequently prime minister.
Summary of Necessary Steps
- Find a vacant parliamentary seat
- Secure NEC permission to stand
- Win the by-election and become an MP
- Meet the nomination threshold (20% of MPs, plus CLP or affiliate support)
- Win the leadership competition to become Labour leader and prime minister
