Greens Eye Kingmaker Role in Wales as Senedd Elections Approach
Greens Eye Kingmaker Role in Welsh Senedd Elections

Green party leader Zack Polanski joined Welsh leader Anthony Slaughter in Cardiff's Canton neighbourhood on Saturday to rally supporters ahead of next week's Senedd elections. The church hall was filled with activists who had spent the day canvassing, including members from Northern Ireland, Sweden, and Denmark, reflecting growing momentum for the Welsh Greens.

Polanski and Slaughter Unite After Dispute

After a delay of over an hour, the crowd cheered as Polanski appeared, embracing Slaughter. The two leaders had recently resolved differences following Slaughter's criticism of Polanski for sharing a social media post about police handling of the Golders Green attack. Polanski told the crowd, 'I'm really excited to see those results roll in,' adding that the atmosphere reminded him of a winning campaign.

Potential Kingmaker Role

Polls indicate Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth is likely to become first minister, ending nearly 30 years of Labour dominance. While Reform could win the most seats, other parties have ruled out a coalition with Nigel Farage's party. Ap Iorwerth hopes to form a minority government, but the Senedd's proportional system encourages coalitions. The Greens, who also back Welsh independence, are seen as a viable partner.

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Slaughter and Polanski have emphasised the Greens could be 'kingmakers' in the next Senedd. As a potential junior partner in a Plaid Cymru government, they vow to push for bolder policies on energy, climate, housing, rent controls, and council tax. Liz Hughes, a 53-year-old former Labour supporter, said the Greens represent 'hope not hate,' criticising Reform's lack of answers to cost-of-living concerns.

Surge in Support

Saturday's atmosphere was unthinkable a year ago, when Slaughter hoped for at least one seat in 2026. Since then, Green party membership in England and Wales has tripled to 222,000. A February poll forecast the party gaining 10 seats, pushing Labour into fourth place. Winning five seats would grant the Greens formal group status, unlocking hundreds of thousands of pounds in public funding.

Canvassing in Grangetown, a working-class area of Cardiff, Slaughter found almost every resident intending to vote Green. Many were disillusioned former Labour voters; one said Plaid Cymru's platform was not progressive enough. Slaughter noted, 'Dedicated members have put in a lot of work over the years. It's really weird being recognised though.'

Electoral Prospects

The Greens are likely to win seats in Cardiff's two new superconstituencies and are competitive in Ceredigion Penfro and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd. Under Wales's new voting system, six members are elected per constituency, and the fight for the last seats could be between Greens and Reform. Tessa Marshall, the second Green candidate in Caerdydd Penarth, said, 'Voting Green won't let Reform in. We can stop them from being the largest party.'

Policy Alignment and Challenges

The Greens' manifesto, described by the Institute for Fiscal Studies as an 'opening gambit' for negotiations, includes replacing council tax and business rates with land value taxes, aligning with Plaid Cymru's promises. Both parties support expanding universal childcare. However, energy and nature policy may be contentious, as Plaid Cymru backs nuclear power, including the Wylfa SMR project on Anglesey.

Slaughter expressed readiness for government, stating, 'Our candidates aren't professional politicians; they represent diverse communities with real experience of struggling to make ends meet. That makes them more than qualified to helm the scale of change coming after years of tinkering from establishment factions.'

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